BLOG: China's steel demand? Let's defeat virus first
Since China's central government commenced supplying updates of the virus outbreak nationwide on January 21, the figures for people afflicted have been rising at an alarming rate. Also, countries outside China have been reporting their confirmed cases too, with Singapore, the country that now is my home, also confirming 18 cases, though luckily the number has not increased since February 2.
By the end of February 3, China had identified 20,438 confirmed cases and 23,214 suspected cases, according to the official figures from China's National Health Commission. The virus also caused 425 deaths, while 632 infected patients had been cured, as against the 291 confirmed cases and 54 suspected cases by the end of January 20, the commission noted.
With the numbers jumping before our eyes, as of this very moment the top priority for Beijing is to bring the spread of the contagion under control, I believe, rather than reviewing what measures need to be taken to sustain GDP growth for 2020 at 6% or to figure out what to do to stimulate China's economic development.
Since January 23, Beijing made the decision to lock down Wuhan in Hubei province to curtail the spread of the virus, the city having been identified as the epicentre of the outbreak. But many other cities in Hubei such as Echeng, Huanggang, and Xiangyang have taken similar but maybe slightly less harsh measures to limit the mobility of their citizens by suspending train or bus services. Meanwhile, Wenzhou in Zhejiang province has become the latest city in China to announce limiting its citizens' movements over February 2-8 to control the spread of the virus, according to the Chinese media reports.
Under the latest Wenzhou city government decision, families are only allowed to send one family member out of their residence every two days to replenish daily necessities such as vegetables, fruits and groceries.
Tens of thousands of people in China alone are fighting against the virus and no one knows for sure how long the battle will last. Though many provincial governments expect that most local enterprises should be able to resume normal business around February 9-10, it is really too early – and dare I say, probably meaningless – to discuss steel demand or production in China.
Logistics affected, Chinese companies preparing for employees' return
"For now, the iron ore discharge rate from many Chinese ports has been affected because of the roadblocks and the lack of trucks on the roads," a Shanghai-based analyst shared. "But then, steel mills may be forced to cut down on production, given the reduced demand for construction steel when most building sites in China remain shut."
Over the last few days of this week, senior managerial personnel in Chinese companies, privately-owned or state-owned, big or small, are probably holding emergency meetings, face-to-face or via conference call services before business resumes next Monday, figuring out the best way to maintain hygiene company-wide. Small but crucial measures such as how frequently the buttons in the lift should be wiped with antiseptic to avoid any potential spread of the 2019-nCoV bug, and what quarantine measures should kick off should any suspected or confirmed cases happen among employees.
No one knows, as least for now, whether the virus will be brought under control or whether – as some have predicted – the outbreak will reach its climax next week, so again, I think it too early to assess the impact of the virus on the Chinese and global economy or on steel production or demand in or out of China. Fingers crossed that the virus will be defeated and fast.
Newly-opened Hushengshan Hospital receiving first batch of virus patients, source: Xinhua News Agency
Written by Hongmei Li, li.hongmei@mysteel.com
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