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Chinese demand for iron ore will likely see some recovery this month, with some domestic steelmakers having plans to gradually lift production, but the room for growth might still be relatively limited, Mysteel's latest monthly report notes.
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Futures prices of major ferrous commodities in China including steel, iron ore, coke and coking coal all tumbled on July 15 as pessimism in the market about future demand for these commodities deepened further.
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Growing fears across China that demand for steel and raw materials is stagnating have seen prices of related commodities tumble over the past several days, and market sources on Wednesday warned that the near-future outlook for demand remains bleak.
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Chinese demand for iron ore will likely be restrained this month if domestic finished steel demand continues to be subdued, Mysteel's latest monthly report noted, while iron ore supply could loosen further during the period, it warns.
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Futures prices of major ferrous commodities including steel, iron ore, coke and coking coal in China have slumped badly over the past few days, negating almost all of the increases that the prices of these commodities had notched up since late May, as the rather sluggish domestic steel demand has become more entrenched, market sources suggest.
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The supply-demand fundamentals for imported iron ore in China are still relatively healthy, ensuring that prices continue to hover high and despite the pressure of policy risks, according to market sources on Friday.
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Stocks of major finished steel items held by Chinese traders sampled by Mysteel ended four straight weeks of declines over June 3-9, reversing up 2.6% or by 627,200 tonnes on week, according to Mysteel's latest stocks survey. Mainly responsible for the uptick were the continued heavy downpours in the southern and central parts of China which thwarted any substantial improvement in actual steel demand from end-users, sources remarked.
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Finished steel inventories held by traders across China declined again during May 27-June 2, shrinking by another 0.6% on week - albeit at a slower rate than the 1.2% decline seen in the prior week, Mysteel's latest weekly survey showed. Market sources warned that the pick-up in demand after the decline in the nation's COVID-19 caseload currently may be impeded as the season of scorching weather, storms and occasional floods is approaching.
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Buoyancy market sentiment saw China's market for iron ore derivatives end the week strongly on Friday, with the most-traded iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange for September delivery closing the daytime session at Yuan 863.5/dmt ($128/dmt), or up 4.4% or Yuan 36.5/dmt from Thursday's settlement price.
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Steel inventories held by Chinese traders surveyed by Mysteel decreased further by 278,300 tonnes on week during May 20-26, though the rate of fall was slower compared with the 422,300 tonnes decline in the previous week, new survey data show. Buying enthusiasm among end-users had been dampened by the weakening steel prices in the domestic market, respondents said.
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China's iron ore market has taken news of India's imposition of higher export duties on iron ore calmly, Chinese market sources said on Monday, most likely because the impact on China's iron ore and steel supply is expected to be limited.
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China's blast-furnace steelmakers have fallen back in love with medium-Fe grade iron ore products recently, shunning the lower grade ores they had shown a determined preference for previously, as medium grade ore promises improved cost-effectiveness, given the poor finished steel margins mills are earning, according to market source.
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China's iron ore market is likely to see both supply and demand grow this month, though growth in the latter might be limited, according to Mysteel's latest monthly report. Ore prices may fluctuate during the month, it also warned.
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Over April 8-14, total inventories of the five major finished steel products held by the Chinese trading houses in 132 cities under Mysteel's tracking reached a two-month low after decreasing for six consecutive weeks, according to Mysteel's latest weekly stocks survey.
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Blast furnace steelmakers across China grappling with thin margins on their finished steel continue to prefer lower Fe grade imported iron ore products, according to market sources on Thursday, a fondness that is seeing prices of these ore products firm compared with those of other ores.
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Over April 1-7, finished steel inventories at Chinese trading warehouses under Mysteel's tracking declined for the fifth straight week, despite down by a small 7,100 tonnes. Stocks of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil and medium plate among the surveyed traders in the 132 Chinese cities totaled 26.37 million tonnes as of April 7.
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Cautious sentiment has been prevailing in China's imported iron ore market among both steelmakers and traders since mid-March as prices of imported iron ore have strengthened to recent highs, Mysteel's latest survey has found.
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China's iron ore market will likely see growth in both supply and demand in April, though the market will still be mixed, according to Mysteel's latest monthly report.
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Shrinking margins on their finished steel have led Chinese steelmakers to seek out lower Fe grade imported iron ore fines recently, market sources observed on Tuesday, saying that the improved demand saw trading of this ore pick up in tandem.
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China's iron ore market is likely to see both supply and demand weaken in February, though the existing oversupply may weigh on iron ore prices, according to Mysteel's latest monthly report.
