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After ten years of struggling and little progress made in the Simandou co-development mainly between Rio Tinto and Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (Chalco), Simandou has been back to the radar in the world’s iron ore community, and coincidentally it has emerged with the re-surge in global iron ore prices in the past two years.
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After over 42 years of “opening up policy” execution since 1978, China has reignited its economic engine, trying to set up a new economic development model in Xiong’an New Area in North China’s Hebei province, just like the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone back in 1980, and the difference is that Xiong’an is not about trade, it is about eco-friendly and high-end industries and well-designed landscape with digitalization and artificial intelligence being the core elements.
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With the COVID-19 seemingly under control, air pollution control – the core task for Beijing’s “Blue Sky Safeguard” over 2018-2020 – has returned to the Chinese authorities’ radar, and coking, a top polluting industrial sector, has been requested by the authorities in Shandong and Jiangsu in East China, to continue with restricting or removing local capacities, and this has renewed the market concern over coke supply, as the measures are expected to sharply reduce regional coke availability.
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Click here for part 1 of the feature
High
steel output and stocks to persist in H2
The unsolvable
uncertainties in demand will only lead to the rises in finished steel
inventories on the zealous output, which will test the Chinese steel market
resilience in the latter half of 2020, keeping the market participants always
on their
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After the robust performance in April and May, China’s domestic steel demand may step onto a down slope starting June, and 2020 may end with a 4% on-year decline in total steel consumption, while the supply glut will be even more outstanding against the retreat in consumption in H2, Xu Xiangchun, Mysteel’s senior steel analyst, warned the market at the 3rd Bohai Economic Rim Steel Conference 2020 on June 3, the first large-scale virtual conference that Mysteel held with over 1,000 dial-ins and over 50,000 views.
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China’s “two sessions” in 2020 are of even greater significance than the previous years, as the top two political sessions to start on May 21 and May 22, will not only finalize the country’s series of development tasks including economic growth for this year but will also pan out the 14th five-year (2021-2025) planning period strategy, and many industries including steel are expecting more stimulus measures from Beijing to combat against the impact of the COVID-19.
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After a rather exciting year in 2019 for iron ore suppliers, the market seems to have little chance for the quiet moment in 2020, but the only difference is that both demand and supply may take turns to lead the market instead of allowing supply to play a dominant role. (It will take about 5-7 minutes to finish reading the story.)
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If you find it hard to get in touch with your Japanese contacts at 9am Tokyo time though prior to the “Telework” or “working from home” practice, they would have been at the office before 8am, do not worry, they are fine, just that they are still adjusting themselves to this novel working style.
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A warning to suppliers, buyers and speculators in global iron ore: the price volatility you’ve witnessed in the world’s largest iron ore market, China, in recent months will be a feature of your lives for some time to come. That’s the view of numerous market sources canvassed across China by Mysteel Global this week who say the data suggests the wild ride for the commodity will continue, at least in the near term.
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Click here for part 1 of the feature
How low China’s 2020 GDP growth will dip to?
Before the sudden breakout of COVID-19, it was widely anticipated that China’s GDP growth would not slow down too much from the 6.1% growth achieved in 2019, may be at around 5.8-6% for 2020.
The pandemic,
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China has been injecting funding via various means such as government bonds for specific use, taxation reliefs, and subsidizing rentals and others to help support and revitalize the national economy after a stalling economy since late January for almost two months during the fight against the COVID-19.
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China Baowu Steel Group (Baowu Group), the world’s top steelmaker in terms of 2019 output, is further progressing with its internal consolidation with the latest move being to combine its several steel subsidiaries’ raw material procurement and trading under the newly-established Baowu Raw Materials Procurement Service Co Ltd (Baowu Raw Materials), Mysteel Global noted.
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The China Association of Metalscrap Utilization (CAMU) is continuing to press the central government in Beijing to open steel scrap import channels and introduce policies to free up imports of steel scrap, saying this should be done considering the economic and environmental benefits, according to association vice president, Li Shubin.
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Despite the news one after another from the overseas miners including ferrous and nonferrous regarding their operations disruptions amid the outbreak of the COVID-19, China’s iron ore arrivals have so far not felt any material impact, market sources confirmed over the past three days.
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China’s imported iron ore prices in both the spot and futures markets have been rather volatile since February 3, the supposedly first working day after the lengthy Chinese New Year holiday, and the fluctuation may probably continue in the near term with the mix of positive and negative signals making it hard for investors to agree on the market trend, market sources shared over March 4-6. (Est. reading time: 6 min)
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Nowadays, when I am counting my blessings, I will put one in the daily list, which is that I have never ever thought of testing my market understanding by trading iron ore in the physical or paper markets myself despite having been closely monitoring the market since 2004.
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China, the world’s top one steelmaking and iron ore consuming country, was at the epicenter of all the drama unfolded in the iron ore market in 2019 when the seaborne price shot up and stayed at the three-digit level for some months mainly because of the global iron ore supplies with Vale’s dam accident in late January and then the cyclone that hit Pilbara, Western Australia, in late March.
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China, the world’s top one steelmaking and iron ore consuming country, was at the epicenter of all the drama unfolded in the iron ore market in 2019 when the seaborne price shot up and stayed at the three-digit level for some months mainly because of the global iron ore supplies with Vale’s dam accident in late January and then the cyclone that hit Pilbara, Western Australia, in late March.
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China, the world’s top one steelmaking and iron ore consuming country, was at the epicenter of all the drama unfolded in the iron ore market in 2019 when the seaborne price shot up and stayed at the three-digit level for some months mainly because of the global iron ore supplies with Vale’s dam accident in late January and then the cyclone that hit Pilbara, Western Australia, in late March.
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China’s 81 property enterprises have filed for bankruptcy since the start of 2020, according to the official data from the People’s Court Announcement, as their promotional efforts including discounts have been futile in selling off their housing stocks so far when people dare not even step out of the door most of the time since the nationwide outbreak of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP) in latest January.
