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The world’s top iron ore miners had strived to supply more to the global steel mills with those in China in particular over the July-September quarter, and yet China’s imported iron ore prices had soared to the multi-year highs for the seaborne cargoes and port inventories, clearly illustrating the country’s phenomenal growths in steel output and in turn iron ore consumption.
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China’s imports of steel semis over January-August skyrocketed ten folds on year to a total of 11.4 million tonnes, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC), and the surge contributed greatly to China’s re-emergence as a net steel importer during June-August for the first time in over a decade.
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Last week’s news that within this year, China could release long-awaited national guidelines relating to steel scrap standards – and the possibility that this may see present restrictions on scrap imports being eased – attracted great attention in Japan, though the feeling is rather mixed from sellers and buyers.
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In late September, China’s President Xi Jinping surprised the global community by announcing a hugely ambitious plan to make the country carbon-neutral by 2060. In the three weeks since, I have received a growing number of inquiries from steel industry insiders wondering how the Chinese steel industry will adjust to the low-carbon era.
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In the first eight months of 2020, China imported more energy products such as crude oil,natural gas and coal,according to the latest statistics from the country’s General Administration of Customs published on September 7, and the slowing global economy had sent prices lower.
For crude oil, China imported 368 million tonnes
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Similar to the time shortly after the 2008-2009 financial crisis, China has again been standing alone in the global steel market in 2020, absorbing the extra iron ore from the other countries, as their steel industries have slowed down with the stalling economy in the middle of the fierce battling against the COVID-19.
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Steelmakers in Asia are displaying differing degrees of resilience against the negative impact of the COVID-19 on their businesses. It has been six months since China formally acknowledged its emergence in January, and the actual impact on the steel industry in China, Japan and Taiwan is worth looking into for the comparison of the pros and cons in their respective business models chiefly regarding steel sales.
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A quick look at how China's economy and steel market performed in the first half of 2020.
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Anna and Olivia will be discussing some of the key topics discussed during the 2020 SEAISI e-Conference, ASEAN's flagship steel industry conference.
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After ten years of struggling and little progress made in the Simandou co-development mainly between Rio Tinto and Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (Chalco), Simandou has been back to the radar in the world’s iron ore community, and coincidentally it has emerged with the re-surge in global iron ore prices in the past two years.
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After over 42 years of “opening up policy” execution since 1978, China has reignited its economic engine, trying to set up a new economic development model in Xiong’an New Area in North China’s Hebei province, just like the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone back in 1980, and the difference is that Xiong’an is not about trade, it is about eco-friendly and high-end industries and well-designed landscape with digitalization and artificial intelligence being the core elements.
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With the COVID-19 seemingly under control, air pollution control – the core task for Beijing’s “Blue Sky Safeguard” over 2018-2020 – has returned to the Chinese authorities’ radar, and coking, a top polluting industrial sector, has been requested by the authorities in Shandong and Jiangsu in East China, to continue with restricting or removing local capacities, and this has renewed the market concern over coke supply, as the measures are expected to sharply reduce regional coke availability.
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Click here for part 1 of the feature
High
steel output and stocks to persist in H2
The unsolvable
uncertainties in demand will only lead to the rises in finished steel
inventories on the zealous output, which will test the Chinese steel market
resilience in the latter half of 2020, keeping the market participants always
on their
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After the robust performance in April and May, China’s domestic steel demand may step onto a down slope starting June, and 2020 may end with a 4% on-year decline in total steel consumption, while the supply glut will be even more outstanding against the retreat in consumption in H2, Xu Xiangchun, Mysteel’s senior steel analyst, warned the market at the 3rd Bohai Economic Rim Steel Conference 2020 on June 3, the first large-scale virtual conference that Mysteel held with over 1,000 dial-ins and over 50,000 views.
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China’s “two sessions” in 2020 are of even greater significance than the previous years, as the top two political sessions to start on May 21 and May 22, will not only finalize the country’s series of development tasks including economic growth for this year but will also pan out the 14th five-year (2021-2025) planning period strategy, and many industries including steel are expecting more stimulus measures from Beijing to combat against the impact of the COVID-19.
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After a rather exciting year in 2019 for iron ore suppliers, the market seems to have little chance for the quiet moment in 2020, but the only difference is that both demand and supply may take turns to lead the market instead of allowing supply to play a dominant role. (It will take about 5-7 minutes to finish reading the story.)
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If you find it hard to get in touch with your Japanese contacts at 9am Tokyo time though prior to the “Telework” or “working from home” practice, they would have been at the office before 8am, do not worry, they are fine, just that they are still adjusting themselves to this novel working style.
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A warning to suppliers, buyers and speculators in global iron ore: the price volatility you’ve witnessed in the world’s largest iron ore market, China, in recent months will be a feature of your lives for some time to come. That’s the view of numerous market sources canvassed across China by Mysteel Global this week who say the data suggests the wild ride for the commodity will continue, at least in the near term.
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Click here for part 1 of the feature
How low China’s 2020 GDP growth will dip to?
Before the sudden breakout of COVID-19, it was widely anticipated that China’s GDP growth would not slow down too much from the 6.1% growth achieved in 2019, may be at around 5.8-6% for 2020.
The pandemic,
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China has been injecting funding via various means such as government bonds for specific use, taxation reliefs, and subsidizing rentals and others to help support and revitalize the national economy after a stalling economy since late January for almost two months during the fight against the COVID-19.
