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After over 42 years of “opening up policy” execution since 1978, China has reignited its economic engine, trying to set up a new economic development model in Xiong’an New Area in North China’s Hebei province, just like the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone back in 1980, and the difference is that Xiong’an is not about trade, it is about eco-friendly and high-end industries and well-designed landscape with digitalization and artificial intelligence being the core elements.
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Click here for part 1 of the feature
High
steel output and stocks to persist in H2
The unsolvable
uncertainties in demand will only lead to the rises in finished steel
inventories on the zealous output, which will test the Chinese steel market
resilience in the latter half of 2020, keeping the market participants always
on their
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After the robust performance in April and May, China’s domestic steel demand may step onto a down slope starting June, and 2020 may end with a 4% on-year decline in total steel consumption, while the supply glut will be even more outstanding against the retreat in consumption in H2, Xu Xiangchun, Mysteel’s senior steel analyst, warned the market at the 3rd Bohai Economic Rim Steel Conference 2020 on June 3, the first large-scale virtual conference that Mysteel held with over 1,000 dial-ins and over 50,000 views.
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China’s “two sessions” in 2020 are of even greater significance than the previous years, as the top two political sessions to start on May 21 and May 22, will not only finalize the country’s series of development tasks including economic growth for this year but will also pan out the 14th five-year (2021-2025) planning period strategy, and many industries including steel are expecting more stimulus measures from Beijing to combat against the impact of the COVID-19.
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If you find it hard to get in touch with your Japanese contacts at 9am Tokyo time though prior to the “Telework” or “working from home” practice, they would have been at the office before 8am, do not worry, they are fine, just that they are still adjusting themselves to this novel working style.
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Click here for part 1 of the feature
How low China’s 2020 GDP growth will dip to?
Before the sudden breakout of COVID-19, it was widely anticipated that China’s GDP growth would not slow down too much from the 6.1% growth achieved in 2019, may be at around 5.8-6% for 2020.
The pandemic,
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China has been injecting funding via various means such as government bonds for specific use, taxation reliefs, and subsidizing rentals and others to help support and revitalize the national economy after a stalling economy since late January for almost two months during the fight against the COVID-19.
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China’s 81 property enterprises have filed for bankruptcy since the start of 2020, according to the official data from the People’s Court Announcement, as their promotional efforts including discounts have been futile in selling off their housing stocks so far when people dare not even step out of the door most of the time since the nationwide outbreak of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP) in latest January.
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Earlier than usual, China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) disclosed on November 27 to grant China's local authorities a total of Yuan 1 trillion ($142.4 billion) quota for the issuance of government bonds for specific uses, which is part of efforts to stabilize the national economy in 2020, clarifying that this is just “part of the whole parcel”.
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China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) released two notices on its website on November 12 regarding winter restrictions in the Fenwei Plains and the Yangtze River Delta area over October 1-March 31 2020, with steel, coal and coke industries mentioned, though the focus has been on PM2.5 reduction and waste emission than any detailed and specific instructions in tackling coking, blast furnaces, and sintering.
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After a six-year hiatus, China’s National Development and Reform
Committee (NDRC), the country’s top economic planning body, has released its
latest industrial restructuring guidelines, effective on January 1 2020, to
direct the development of all the key 48 economic sectors including new energy,
coal, steel, nonferrous metals and mining.
The version, posted on the Committee’s
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China’s crude steel production found another burst of energy during April and May – after leaping by nearly 10% over January-March – to refresh new output highs and in turn, fuel market concerns about oversupply, according to a report in China Metallurgical News on June 19, according to a report in China Metallurgical News on June 19.
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China wants more of its steelmakers to locate at the coastal areas - not just for their health but for everyone else’s. Begun tentatively a decade ago when land was needed for special events – the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games and Expo 2010 in Shanghai, to name but two – the relocation of steelmakers from city areas to coastal regions is now a heavily-promoted industrial guidance upheld by many local and provincial governments. Less widely publicized are the merits for the involved steel mills to get to know their new neighbours.
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China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s top economic planning body, is formulating policies to promote nationwide consumption of eco-friendly and high intelligence auto, white goods and electronics products, according to Xinhua reports on April 18 and April 21.
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China’s decision to reduce the value-added tax on manufacturers to 13% on April 1 from the prevalent 16% may not definitely lead to lower prices of ferrous products including iron ore and steel or downstream products such as auto, market sources said on Monday and Tuesday.
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China’s steel industry is in general excited at the news on Beijing’s mulling cutting the value-added tax (VAT) on the domestic manufacturers and small and micro enterprises to 13% from the present 16%, possibly in 2019, expecting the measure to reduce their production costs, helping them enhance their competitiveness especially in the global market, according to market sources on March 5 and 6.
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With severe air pollution expected to envelop large swathes of China this week and next, industries identified as major sources of pollution such as steel mills will likely come under close monitoring by local governments ready to slap emergency restrictions on production, steel sector sources warned Tuesday. But though stern official announcements and excited Chinese media reports have raised anxiety levels among affected enterprises up a few notches, steel market watchers counsel calm, maintaining that disruptions to production are unlikely to be any more severe than those the industry has already endured so far this winter.
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The start of production restrictions for winter among Chinese steelmakers and their raw materials processors has revealed a vast difference in approach to the issue among steelmakers and local authorities in the country’s two largest steelmaking centres, Tangshan and Handan in North China’s Hebei province. But for the 200-odd steelmakers and merchant coke producers the cities host, the differences in policy execution by their city governments may be rendered irrelevant by nature if this week’s pollution alert emergency becomes a worrying regularity.
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Chinese steel mills’ reaction varied to the possible “differentiated” curbing measures among them during the 2018 winter months, with some applauding the fairer touch while others concerned about the loopholes when inquired by Mysteel on Wednesday.
China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment called for the local authorities at a government meeting
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Changzhou city in East China’s Jiangsu province is among the latest to join Beijing’s drive to improve air quality, with the city explicitly instructing 48 local steel mills to continue to cut their daily steel output beginning July 25 and lasting possibly until year’s end, an official from Changzhou City Environmental Protection Bureau confirmed on July 30.
