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Hebei, China’s top steel producing province in North China and now the new epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, has been acting swiftly by curtailing the mobility of the citizens in three of its cities – Shijiazhuang, Xingtai and Langfang, and the local authorities have been fast in blanket swaps tests on the citizens, trying to bring down the number of the new daily cases.
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No one would have expected the steelmaking raw materials prices including iron ore, coke and scrap to have attempted multi-year highs in December, a usual off season for steel consumption and production, but the year 2020 had been proven anything but normal, and many iron ore traders ended their 2020 in frustration, as iron ore prices shot up for seemingly no reason at all.
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China’s imports of steel semis over January-August skyrocketed ten folds on year to a total of 11.4 million tonnes, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC), and the surge contributed greatly to China’s re-emergence as a net steel importer during June-August for the first time in over a decade.
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In the first eight months of 2020, China imported more energy products such as crude oil,natural gas and coal,according to the latest statistics from the country’s General Administration of Customs published on September 7, and the slowing global economy had sent prices lower.
For crude oil, China imported 368 million tonnes
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Similar to the time shortly after the 2008-2009 financial crisis, China has again been standing alone in the global steel market in 2020, absorbing the extra iron ore from the other countries, as their steel industries have slowed down with the stalling economy in the middle of the fierce battling against the COVID-19.
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Steelmakers in Asia are displaying differing degrees of resilience against the negative impact of the COVID-19 on their businesses. It has been six months since China formally acknowledged its emergence in January, and the actual impact on the steel industry in China, Japan and Taiwan is worth looking into for the comparison of the pros and cons in their respective business models chiefly regarding steel sales.
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A quick look at how China's economy and steel market performed in the first half of 2020.
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Anna and Olivia will be discussing some of the key topics discussed during the 2020 SEAISI e-Conference, ASEAN's flagship steel industry conference.
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After over 42 years of “opening up policy” execution since 1978, China has reignited its economic engine, trying to set up a new economic development model in Xiong’an New Area in North China’s Hebei province, just like the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone back in 1980, and the difference is that Xiong’an is not about trade, it is about eco-friendly and high-end industries and well-designed landscape with digitalization and artificial intelligence being the core elements.
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With the COVID-19 seemingly under control, air pollution control – the core task for Beijing’s “Blue Sky Safeguard” over 2018-2020 – has returned to the Chinese authorities’ radar, and coking, a top polluting industrial sector, has been requested by the authorities in Shandong and Jiangsu in East China, to continue with restricting or removing local capacities, and this has renewed the market concern over coke supply, as the measures are expected to sharply reduce regional coke availability.
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Click here for part 1 of the feature
High
steel output and stocks to persist in H2
The unsolvable
uncertainties in demand will only lead to the rises in finished steel
inventories on the zealous output, which will test the Chinese steel market
resilience in the latter half of 2020, keeping the market participants always
on their
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After the robust performance in April and May, China’s domestic steel demand may step onto a down slope starting June, and 2020 may end with a 4% on-year decline in total steel consumption, while the supply glut will be even more outstanding against the retreat in consumption in H2, Xu Xiangchun, Mysteel’s senior steel analyst, warned the market at the 3rd Bohai Economic Rim Steel Conference 2020 on June 3, the first large-scale virtual conference that Mysteel held with over 1,000 dial-ins and over 50,000 views.
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China’s “two sessions” in 2020 are of even greater significance than the previous years, as the top two political sessions to start on May 21 and May 22, will not only finalize the country’s series of development tasks including economic growth for this year but will also pan out the 14th five-year (2021-2025) planning period strategy, and many industries including steel are expecting more stimulus measures from Beijing to combat against the impact of the COVID-19.
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If you find it hard to get in touch with your Japanese contacts at 9am Tokyo time though prior to the “Telework” or “working from home” practice, they would have been at the office before 8am, do not worry, they are fine, just that they are still adjusting themselves to this novel working style.
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Click here for part 1 of the feature
How low China’s 2020 GDP growth will dip to?
Before the sudden breakout of COVID-19, it was widely anticipated that China’s GDP growth would not slow down too much from the 6.1% growth achieved in 2019, may be at around 5.8-6% for 2020.
The pandemic,
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China has been injecting funding via various means such as government bonds for specific use, taxation reliefs, and subsidizing rentals and others to help support and revitalize the national economy after a stalling economy since late January for almost two months during the fight against the COVID-19.
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China’s 81 property enterprises have filed for bankruptcy since the start of 2020, according to the official data from the People’s Court Announcement, as their promotional efforts including discounts have been futile in selling off their housing stocks so far when people dare not even step out of the door most of the time since the nationwide outbreak of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP) in latest January.
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No one would have expected the global iron ore prices in 2019 to have experienced such a sharp turn for rises epsecially when China, as the world’s largest iron ore consumer, already posted its first-year ever decline in annual iron ore imports volume albeit 1% year on year in 2018.
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Earlier than usual, China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) disclosed on November 27 to grant China's local authorities a total of Yuan 1 trillion ($142.4 billion) quota for the issuance of government bonds for specific uses, which is part of efforts to stabilize the national economy in 2020, clarifying that this is just “part of the whole parcel”.
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China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) released two notices on its website on November 12 regarding winter restrictions in the Fenwei Plains and the Yangtze River Delta area over October 1-March 31 2020, with steel, coal and coke industries mentioned, though the focus has been on PM2.5 reduction and waste emission than any detailed and specific instructions in tackling coking, blast furnaces, and sintering.
