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China’s steel analysts are divided upon China’s steel market outlook for 2020 even though they shared the common understanding that China’s national economy growth will maintains its stability, Mysteel Global understood from the phone interviews.
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Chinese steel mills in key steelmaking hubs in North China are bracing themselves for possible emergency curbs for the next four days beginning Friday after the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) forecast a deterioration in air quality over urban centres from around December 12.
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China’s daily crude steel output grew further during the first ten days of December to average 2.43 million tonnes/day, up by another 30,100 t/d or 1.3% from the November 21-30 period, according to Mysteel’s latest survey among 247 blast-furnace and 101 electric-arc-furnace steel producers nationwide released on Wednesday. The December 1-10 average also refreshed a new high since late September.
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Daily output of five major carbon steel products among the 216 surveyed steelmakers across China in December is expected to increase further on month, and Mysteel’s latest survey published on December 10 already expected a rise of 43,000 tonnes/day or about 2.5% on month to 1.77 million t/d on average.
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China’s national average benchmark price for HRB 400 20mm dia rebar, the most important indicator of China’s steel market sentiment, reserved down by Yuan 5/tonne ($0.7/t) on day to Yuan 4,012/t including the 13% VAT as of December 11 after one-day pause of decline, while spot sales of construction steel showed moderate recovery on the same day, according to Mysteel’s database.
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China’s steel export volume has remained slack despite recent price rises together with the overall strengthening in China’s domestic prices, as higher prices have only highlighted the lack of pricing competitiveness in the global market, according to Chinese market sources on Tuesday.
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Rebar profit among China’s 91 integrated steelmakers under Mysteel’s monthly study averaged Yuan 516/tonne ($73/t) over October 26-November 25, or up Yuan 211/t on month, mainly because of rebar price rises on better demand and market sentiment while steady iron ore prices.
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Daily crude steel output among the 97 major steelworks members of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reversed down over November 21-30 by 31,400 tonnes/day or 1.6% from November 11-20 to 1.97 million t/d on average, according to the association’s latest release on December 10.
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China’s auto production for November posted the first year-on-year increase since June 2018, up 3.8% on year or 13% higher on month to about 2.6 million units, and the auto sales went down 3.6% on year though still down 7.6% on month, according to the latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) on December 10.
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Shagang Group, China’s largest private steel producer based in East China’s Jiangsu province, will roll over its rebar list price for sales over December 11-20, the mill announced on Wednesday. The steelmaker wants to firmly support the price, despite the recent weakness in the domestic market, a Shagang official explained to Mysteel Global.
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China’s domestic and export sales of excavators and other heavy machinery over January-November increased by 15% on year to reach 215,538 units, according to the latest data released by the China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) on December 10. The increase over the eleven months was also larger than the 14.5% on-year rise for January-October.
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China’s national average HRB400 20mm dia rebar benchmark price, the most important indicator of China’s steel market dynamic, stayed on the downtrend as of December 9, having lost another Yuan 9/tonne ($1.3/t) from last Friday to Yuan 4,016/t including the 13% VAT, or a low since November 15.
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China’s foreign trade surplus in Yuan enlarged 34.9% on year to Yuan 2.6 trillion ($369.4 billion) over January-November, though the trade surplus in the U.S. dollar increased 28.4% on year to $377.6 billion, according to a release by China’s General Administration of Customs on December 8, both, however, being lower than the 42.3% or 34.9% for the first ten months.
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Daily crude steel output among the 97 major steelworks members of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) continued to increase during the middle ten days of November and touched a two-month high of approximately 2 million tonnes/day on average, up another 8,800 t/d or 0.4% from early November, according to the association’s latest release on December 6.
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China’s steel exports totalled 59.7 million tonnes over the January-November, down 6.5% on year, according to the latest statistics released by China’s General Administration of Customs on December 8, with the decline being steeper than 5.8% year-on-year drop over January-October, as better domestic steel sales than exports in November, Mysteel Global has learned.
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Stocks of the five major finished steel items held by the Chinese traders Mysteel regularly surveys in 35 major cities nationwide refreshed their record low during the week of November 29-December 5, declining for a ninth straight week by another 0.2% on week to 7.56 million tonnes, according to Mysteel’s latest weekly survey. However, the decline was much smaller than the 2.9% on-week decrease seen in the previous survey period.
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China’s property market may see some positive signs in 2020 after a slowing 2019, though some challenges will persist amid Beijing’s firm stance of “houses are for living not for investment” and the constraint in funding, Chinese market sources shared the cautious optimistic view on December 6.
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China’s shipbuilding industry hasn’t fared well at all so far in 2019, with the few key indicators declining on year amid the several crosscurrents that have been impacting its performance. Dry bulk freight carriers, the model that China has been with the great expertise in building, have been with more than sufficient capacities, while for high-end vessels such as oil and gas tankers that are in hot demand now in the global freight market, Chinese shipbuilders are not as competitive as its South Korean counterparties.
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The link to the Feature P1: https://www.mysteel.net/article/5012052/FEATURE--Chinas-shipbuilders-in-rough-water-Part-1.html
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China’s crude stainless steel production continued to rise in November but at a slower pace of 0.9% or 2 million tonnes on month to 2.36 million tonnes, according to the findings of Mysteel’s latest monthly survey among the country’s 21 domestic stainless makers released on December 4.
