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Prices of rebar in China’s spot and futures markets rose further this week, fuelled by optimism both for a steel demand recovery and a macro-economic rebound, according to market pundits. But for now, the fundamentals are not reflecting that anticipation of better business ahead, Mysteel Global noted.
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Inventories of all grades of stainless steel at commercial warehouses in Wuxi and Foshan, China’s two core stainless trading hubs, continued to mount over February 19-25 due to the large volume of arrivals at traders’ warehouses, Mysteel’s latest weekly survey has found. However, the on-week growth in inventories had slowed to 14.1%, as against the 21% jump over the prior period.
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Steel exported worldwide from Vietnam in January soared by 98.8% on year to total 967,913 tonnes, thanks largely to aggressive purchasing by China, currently the largest buyer of Vietnamese steel.
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Some domestic yellow goods dealers in East and Central China have begun raising sales prices of their heavy equipment beginning late February, trying to offset higher manufacturing costs caused by climbing input prices including those of steel, Mysteel Global has learned.
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Japan’s carbon steel exports declined again in January, falling by 13% on year and by 0.9% on month to 1.65 million tonnes, according to the latest data released by the Japan Iron & Steel Federation on February 26. Though this marked the ninth consecutive monthly tumble, a JISF official was optimistic that this month’s result would show some improvement as steelmakers had more capacity available.
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Crude steel production among 64 countries worldwide under the monthly survey by World Steel Association (WSA) totaled 162.9 million tonnes in January, up 4.8% on year or 2 million tonnes or 1.2% more on month, according to the latest statistics released by the association on February 25, showcasing that global steel demand has been picking up steadily on support of recovering downstream sectors such as automobiles.
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As of February 26, China’s ferromolybdenum prices have grown to Yuan 113,000-114,000/tonne ($17,469-17,623) with some small-sized steel mills paying even higher at Yuan 116,000/t, after China has returned to work since February 18 after the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, mainly in tandem with the gains in the global market.
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On February 25, China’s spot sales of construction steel including rebar, wire rod and bar-in-coil jumped 53.5% on day, and the domestic rebar price appeared rather firm, or having recovered Yuan 9/tonne ($1.4/t) on day, Mysteel’s surveys showed.
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Steel stocks held by traders across China increased over the first week after the Chinese New Year holiday, rising by 16.4% on week as mills passed along some stocks to traders, Mysteel Global noted.
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Growth in China’s industrial machinery sector in 2021 is expected to ease slightly to around 5.5%, as against the 6% on-year rise seen in 2020, but the outlook for the sector remains positive, according to a February 24 release from China’s Machinery Industry Federation (CMIF).
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With China's foreign trade in steel steadily picking up after the Chinese New Year holiday lull while international steel prices keep soaring, speculation regarding possible cuts to Chinese export tax rebates on steel has become more intense both in and out of China.
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On February 24, China’s rebar price took a pause from the rises since February 18, inching down Yuan 9/tonne ($1.4/t) but still persisting at a two-year high, and the spot sales of construction steel including rebar on the same day rebounded 13.6% on day, Mysteel’s surveys showed.
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Local government authorities in Tangshan in North China’s Hebei province, a major steel production and trading hub, have announced the imposition of harsher restrictions on local industrial enterprises to reduce polluting emissions over the city and to improve air quality. Steel industry insiders say the effect on local steel production may be limited but steel deliveries may be impacted.
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Over the coming term, China’s domestic steel prices will likely keep hovering at the current high level, supported by the recovered demand from end-users after the Chinese New Year holiday and high raw materials costs, according to the latest monthly report of the China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) published on February 23.
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After remaining flat since last October, Japanese prices of 300-series stainless cold-rolled (CR) sheet have risen by Yen 10,000/tonne ($95/t) this week, Mysteel Global has learned, and dealers are now targeting a further Yen 10,000/t hike by end of March, according to market sources.
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Most of China’s top ten steelmaking provinces posted on-year increases in their crude steel production for 2020, and Hebei province in North China safeguarded its top ranking though its contribution to the country’s total declined by 0.5 percentage points, Mysteel Global noted from the latest data from the country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
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Daily crude steel output among the member mills of the China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) recovered over February 11-20 after having declined since January 21, up 128,000 tonnes/day or 3.5% from February 1-10 to 2.28 million t/d on average, indicating the mills’ growing optimism on the near-term market outlook and thus the enthusiasm to ramp up output, Mysteel Global understood from the association’s data.
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Toyota Motor, Japan’s largest automaker, has informed its auto components suppliers that it will keep domestic automobile production at around 12,500-13,000 units/day during March-May, and its auto steel consumption, thus, will not be affected much by the short-time stoppage at half of its 28 assembly lines in Japan after the earthquake in mid-February, industry sources in Tokyo and Nagoya of central Japan shared on February 24.
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On February 23, China’s rebar price nudged up for the fifth consecutive day, with that of the HRB400 20mm dia rebar refreshing its two-year high, gaining another Yuan 26/tonne ($4/t) on day, though the spot sales of construction steel including rebar reversed down 24.8% on day, according to Mysteel’s market surveys.
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Domestic sales of passenger cars in China this month are expected to reach 1.2 million units, some 44.9% lower on month, according to the latest release from the China Passenger Car Association on February 22. The CPCA said the Chinese New Year holiday over February 11-17 had interrupted sales, leading to the decline in sales.
