Nickel Sulfate
According to Mysteel new sample, China's nickel sulfate production stood at 188,400 tonnes in April or 41,500 tonnes in Ni. content, a monthly increase of 21.57%. The production consisted by 0.96% nickel briquette/powder, 63.57% MHP, 27.6% high-grade nickel matte, and 7.86% secondary nickel by raw material.
China's nickel production continued to rise in April subject to the resilient end-market demand, especially those with successful const control. Some producers purchased nickel briquette and powder to produce nickel sulfate when the nickel price was low, but the overall volume was insignificant.
Mysteel expects China's nickel sulfate production to pull back 10.36% MoM at 37,200 tonnes in Ni. content in May. The cut is likely to be triggered by sagging demand for NMC batteries in May, and some producers will shift the production focus to nickel plate.
Cobalt Sulfate
China's cobalt sulfate production stood at 27,204 tonnes in April, an increase of 16.35% MoM and 29.94% YoY. The cumulative production of cobalt sulfate from January to April was 98,810 tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 18.46%.
In April, the demand for power batteries was moderate, and the precursor enterprises' demand for raw material cobalt sulfate did not show strong improvement. While the prices of primary and secondary materials reached new lows within the year, a cobalt sulfate enterprise in South China resumed the production. Overall, the cobalt sulfate production maintained rose.
The cobalt sulfate production is estimated at 29,000 tonnes in May, an increase of 6.6% MoM and 32.17% YoY. In May, the operating rates of top-tier manufacturers have recovered to high levels, but the growth rate of demand has been slow. The manufacturers in East China maintain normal production despite the recent environmental inspection. At the same time, a cobalt salt manufacturer in North China has stopped the production for maintenance, but the decline in production is limited. It is expected that the overall demand will be relatively stable in May, and there may be a slight increase in the production.
Manganese Sulfate
China's battery grade manganese sulfate production stood at 16,000 tonnes in April, rising 41.59% MoM and 54.58% YoY. The momentum was enabled by rising demand from ternary precursor companies. When the manganese sulfate smelters scheduled the production on the orders, the rising demand boosted the production in April.
It is expected that China's battery grade manganese sulfate production will rise 6.25% MoM at 17,000 tonnes in May as the downstream demand is projected to remain flat, though some smelters are expected to carry out maintenance.
Cobalt Chloride
China's cobalt chloride production was 18,909 tonnes in April, a month-on-month decrease of 18.28% and a year-on-year increase of 87.35%. The cumulative production of cobalt chloride from January to April was 71,245 tonnes, a YoY increase of 75.96%.
In April, cobalt prices continued to decline. After the ceramic industry players completed building stocks in March, the demand for cobalt chloride gradually weakened. The top-tier downstream players reported a significant decline in bidding frequency in the face of sufficient raw material stocks. As a result, a number of cobalt chloride flowed to electrolytic cobalt production lines that newly came on stream. Nevertheless, the battery cell factories were not in a hurry to purchase, and aggressively forced down the prices.
In May 2024, China's cobalt chloride production is estimated to remain flat compared to the previous month. After the Labour Day holiday, the prices of intermediate products have continued to decline, and many cobalt salt smelters hold the prices firm in the face of losses. However, downstream electronics manufacturers focus on destocking, and are slow in purchasing when the prices are falling. Therefore, it is expected that cobalt chloride production will be largely unchanged in May.
Lithium Carbonate
China's lithium carbonate production stood at 48,500 tonnes in April, a monthly increase of 9%, per Mysteel survey of sampled smelters.
From a region-rise perspective, several top-tier smelters in Jiangxi Province ramped up the production after the influence of environmental protection inspection faded. However, the growth was partly offset by some large-sized smelters in Qinghai Province carrying out maintenance.
The production based on battery scrap was low for lack of raw materials, while the tollers operated at full capacity.
Taken together, China's lithium carbonated production staged a monthly increase of 9% in April.
Looking ahead, it is expected that China's lithium carbonate production will jump 13.5% month on month at 55,100 tonnes in May primary due to rising production in Qinghai Province amidst warming whether, as well as production ramp-up after resuming from the previous maintenance.
Lithium Hydroxide
China's lithium hydroxide production stood at around 23,200 tonnes in April, rising 7.3% MoM, per Mysteel survey of the sampled smelters. The momentum was allowed by moderate downstream demand, especially when some downstream players were in lack of raw materials.
It is expected that China's lithium hydroxide production will drop 4.5% MoM at 22,100 tonnes in May, primarily due to falling orders from NMC battery cell manufacturers, especially 6 and 8-series.
Ternary Precursor
China's ternary precursor production reached 75,800 tonnes in April, an increase of 24.04% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 30.45%. In April, the increase in ternary precursors was significant under the rising downstream demand, and overseas orders increased, with a few top-tier enterprises increasing their production.
China's ternary precursor production is estimated at 71,300 tonnes in May, a decrease of 5.9% MoM and an increase of 18.37% YoY. In May, the top-tier domestic ternary battery cell enterprise have reported a significant reduction in production scheduling, leading to a reduction in production.
Ternary Cathode Material
China's production of ternary cathode materials was 62,700 tonnes in April, an increase of 16.03% MoM and 47.09% YoY. In April, the demand for ternary cathode materials in China was moderate, and the enterprises' production increased obviously. Among them, the growth of C-end supply chain enterprises was significant.
In May 2024, China's production of ternary cathode materials is estimated at 54,500 tonnes, a decrease of 13.12% MoM and a year-on-year increase of 23.44% as the domestic top-tier ternary battery cell enterprises are projected to reduce the production.
Cobalt Powder
China's cobalt powder production was 859 tonnes in April, a month-on-month increase of 0.47% and a year-on-year increase of 19.64%. From January to April, the cumulative production of cobalt powder was 3,249 tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 15.46%.
In April, the mainstream cobalt powder factories continued to maintain normal production. However, as the downstream demand was lukewarm, the market transactions were weak. Some small and medium-sized factories suspended the production, which, however, had a relatively low impact on overall production. Therefore, the cobalt powder production remained relatively stable in April.
The cobalt powder production is expected to reach 870 tonnes in May 2024, an increase of 1.28% compared to last month. At present, the demand for hard alloy remains weak, and downstream users are cautious in bidding. Orders from small and medium-sized enterprises are relatively weak except for some top-tier manufacturers. It is expected that cobalt powder factories will focus on delivering orders received in May, and the overall production of cobalt powder will not change much.
Electrolytic Cobalt
China's electrolytic cobalt production was 2,785 tonnes in April, a month-on-month increase of 5.69% and a year-on-year increase of 88.18%. From January to April, the cumulative electrolytic cobalt production reached 10,664 tonnes, an increase of 121.24% YoY.
In April, overseas cobalt demand remained weak, and the transactions in the Europe market were muted. In China, the demand for high-temperature alloys was lackluster, but the orders improved compared with the previous month. Therefore, most manufacturers were close to full capacity. Therefore, the total production of electrolytic cobalt in April rose.
China's electrolytic cobalt production is expected to be 2,800 tonnes in May, a month on month increase of 0.54% and a year-on-year increase of 84.82%. It is expected that the electrolytic cobalt market will remain weak in May, with raw material prices lacking momentum. Nevertheless, the smelters are likely to maintain normal production to meet the rigid needs.
Co3O4
The production of Co3O4 registered 8,070 tonnes in April, increasing 7.89% MoM and 36.78% YoY. The production from January to April totaled 29,590 tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 61.96%.
The producers generally maintained normal production in April. With the release of new electronic products, the downstream demand recovered gradually. But the upstream sector has not benefited from the demand recovery. But the top-tier enterprises maintained high capacity utilization rates.
It is expected that the production of China's Co3O4 in May 2024 will be 7,600 tonnes, a decrease of 4.07% MoM and a YoY increase of 27.73%. The overall market demand is likely to stay muted in May, but most producers are able to maintain normal production thanks to orders from the electronics market. A producer has reduced the production scheduling for maintenance. Taken together, it is expected that production in May will dip slightly.
LCO
China's LCO production was 8,290 tonnes in April, an increase of 2.35% MoM and 46.73% YoY. The demand for electronics recovered due to the release of new mobiles in April, leading to an increase in orders received by top-tier enterprises. Small and medium-sized enterprises maintained a moderate level of capacity utilization rates. At the same time, the market prices slightly declined along with the volatile cobalt and lithium prices, thus the smelters focused on destocking. It is expected that LCO production will remain stable in May.
LFP
China's LFP production stood at 214,200 tonnes in April, a monthly increase of 34.09%, per Mysteel samples. The momentum was allowed by the prosperous energy storage sector as the downstream players built stocks for upcoming production rush by mid-year, in addition to some new projects coming on stream.
It is expected that China's LFP production will edge up 3.14% MoM at 221,000 tonnes in May as the demand is projected to remain stable based on the May production scheduling of downstream players.
Anode
The anode production of China's mainstream producers totaled 82,300 tonnes in April, rising 6.56% from March but down 18.88% from last year.
In April, the top-tier producers were active in production with the steady recovery of the downstream demand, in addition to relatively low in-plant inventory. Nevertheless, the market has been challenged by mounting oversupply with the commissioning of some new projects, and some small-sized producers struggle to survive by reducing the cost.
It is expected that China's anode production will rise 16.16% month on month at 95,600 tonnes in May.
LiPF6
China's LiPF6 rose 17.54% MoM at 13,000 tonnes in April primarily due to active production of battery cell factories, per Mysteel statistics. And the LiPF6 producers received more orders, leading to rising capacity utilization rates.
It is expected that China LiPF6 production will maintain momentum in May, with the production estimated at 13,500 tonnes, rising 3.85% MoM. It is because the downstream sector is likely to improve further, with battery cell factories maintaining the production at a high level.
Electrolyte
The electrolyte production of China's mainstream producers stood at 95,000 tonnes in April, rising 17.28% MoM, per Mysteel survey. The production growth was boosted by the rising orders from battery cell factories amidst improving end-market demand.
It is expected that the electrolyte production will rise 10.53% MoM at 105,000 tonnes in May thanks to resilient end-market demand.
Separator
Mysteel survey showed that China's separator production stood at 1.471 billion sq.m. in April, rising 8% MoM. The production consisted of around 0.4 billion sq.m. dry process separator (PP) and 1.071 billion sq.m. wet process separator (PE). It is expected that China's separator production will add another 5.4% MoM at 1.55 billion sq.m. in May.
