WEEKLY: China's alumina output dips, stocks rise further

The 44 Chinese alumina refiners under Mysteel’s regular tracking produced 1.75 million tonnes of alumina during March 14-20, with the volume dropping for the third consecutive week, albeit at a slower pace – down by just 1,000 tonnes from the previous week, results of Mysteel’s latest survey showed. The 44 surveyed refiners represent 100% of alumina production capacity nationwide.

The slight decrease in alumina output was largely attributed to small-scale production cuts in Central China's Henan and Southwest China's Guizhou over the week. An alumina refinery based in Henan suspended operations on its 400,000 tonnes/year production line from March 15 onwards to undertake maintenance on a boiler, and another in Guizhou reduced production on its 700,000 t/y alumina production line by around 100,000 tonnes starting from March 20, Mysteel learned.

As a result of the output reduction, the average alumina capacity utilization rate among the 44 alumina refiners was 86.5% as of March 20, down by 0.39 percentage point from the prior week, according to Mysteel's tracking data.

Meanwhile, most alumina refiners maintained their production last week to fulfil long-term contracts, industry insiders noted. Moreover, the accumulation of alumina stocks showed no signs of easing. Mysteel's survey showed that the alumina stockpiled at major Chinese ports, primary alumina smelters, alumina refiners, and at rail freight yards or in transit under Mysteel's monitoring totalled 3.94 million tonnes as of March 20, higher by 30,000 tonnes from a week earlier, rising for the 11th straight week since mid-January and hitting the highest since October 18 2024.

The persistent rise in stocks last week was driven by more alumina piled at rail freight yards or in transit during the survey week, market analysts said, as the spot goods were dispatched at a faster rate by alumina producers. In consequence, the volume of alumina at the yards or in transit increased by 35,000 tonnes from March 13 to reach 886,000 tonnes as of March 20, the survey results showed.

The oversupply situation continued to depress spot alumina prices last week. The average prices for alumina with a more than 98.6% purity in China's five major alumina-producing areas namely Shanxi, Henan, Shandong and Guizhou and Guangxi over March 14-20 declined to Yuan 3,199-3,340/tonne ($441-460/t), down by Yuan 93-128/t on week.

Written by Iris Pang, pangjunyu@mysteel.com

Edited by Alyssa Ren, rentingting@mysteel.com