Nickel Sulfate
China's nickel sulfate production stood at 183,800 tonnes in September, or 40,400 tonnes in Ni. content, down 1.34% month on month (MoM) according to Mysteel survey. The production comprised 0% nickel briquette/powder, 61.9% MHP, 29.66% high-grade nickel matte, and 8.44% secondary nickel by raw material.
In September, low nickel sulfate profits forced some non-integrated companies to reduce the production. Additionally, a drop in exports of integrated ternary precursors further cut the demand for nickel sulfate, causing a slight overall decline in production.
It is likely that China's nickel sulfate production will decline 1.41% MoM at 39,900 tonnes in October, and around 11,700 tonnes of nickel sulfate will be used to produce nickel plates. As overseas demand declines and domestic companies face inventory buildup, nickel sulfate profits are expected to remain weak, combined with firm nickel prices. Consequently, nickel sulfate production is likely to decrease further in October.
Cobalt Sulfate
China's cobalt sulfate production stood at 19,732 tonnes in September, down 0.31% MoM and 27.45% YoY. The production from January to September totaled 208,594 tonnes, a drop of 7.00% YoY. In September, the downstream demand was still poor, and only the top-tier smelters reported smooth shipment with orders from the power sector. The small and medium-sized ones had to reduce the production due to high costs. The supply of cobalt intermediates continued to be excessive, hence the cost support was weakening. Currently there has been significant difference between high and low-end prices on the market. The buyers and sellers were still in a tug-of-war, thus the production of cobalt sulfate continued to decline in September.
In October, China's cobalt sulfate production is estimated at 18,882 tonnes, down 4.31% MoM and 13.09% YoY. In October, the market will be in the off season and the downstream demand may continue to sag. Only the top-tier precursor enterprises have routine stockpiling plans, and the spot transactions are projected to stay lackluster. Meanwhile, the small and medium-sized enterprises actively reduce the spot supply to support the prices.
Manganese Sulfate
China's battery grade manganese sulfate production reported 14,300 tonnes in September, down 1.3% MoM and 8.5% YoY, Mysteel survey showed. The monthly drop was due to poor overseas demand for ternary precursors. It is projected that China's battery grade manganese sulfate production will keep falling in October with some precursor producers having destocking plans.
Cobalt Chloride
China's cobalt chloride reached 22,033 tonnes in September, with a month-on-month decrease of 7.32% but a year-on-year increase of 57.73%. The production year-to-date totaled 185,288 tonnes, rising 71.19% compared to last year. At present, the demand in the electronics sector improved slightly but was still less than expected. Therefore, the inquiries on the cobalt chloride market was relatively silent. Some smelters lost confidence, leading to lower operating rates.
China's cobalt chloride is estimated to be down 1.51% MoM to 21,700 tonnes in October. As the off-season kicks off, the demand for ternary materials gradually weakens. Although the demand for electronics improves slightly, it still falls short of expectations. Meanwhile, the supply of LCO and Co3O4 is likely to be flat, leading to poor demand for cobalt chloride.
Lithium Carbonate
China's lithium carbonate production stood at 61,200 tonnes in September, down 1.9% MoM, per Mysteel survey. In Jiangxi, the production remained largely unchanged compared to the previous month, with only minor reductions resulting from maintenance at certain smelters. Meanwhile, the production in Sichuan and Qinghai remained steady, but the recycling sector saw lower operating rates due to profits in the negative, leading to an overall month-on-month decline.
China's lithium carbonate production will likely fall 6.3% MoM at 57,300 tonnes in October. Following the completion of stock preparation before the National Day holiday, the production enthusiasm at smelters is anticipated to wane. Additionally, with some smelters in Jiangxi province undergoing maintenance and a slight decrease in output from the recycling sector, the overall production is projected to decline in October.
Lithium Hydroxide
China's lithium hydroxide production stood at 21,700 tonnes in September, down 3.8% MoM, per Mysteel survey. The decline was due to the continuous downward trend in lithium hydroxide prices, and many smelters adjusted the production based on long-term contracts, with some undergoing technical upgrades to shift production to lithium carbonate.
China's lithium hydroxide production will likely fall 4.0% MoM at 20,800 tonnes in October. Due to persistently weak market demand and most demand being fulfilled through long-term contracts, the upstream smelters have shown low production enthusiasm and based their production on existing sales orders.
Ternary Precursor
China's ternary precursors production dipped 0.84% MoM and 2.01% YoY to 71,100 tonnes in September. The overseas market demand declined in September, which dragged down the overall production. Meanwhile, some companies saw accumulating inventory in September and need to destock in October. Therefore, the production of ternary precursors will probably be reduced in October.
China's ternary precursors in October is estimated at 6,8400 tonnes, down 3.8% MoM and an increase of 3.54% YoY.
Ternary Cathode Material
China's ternary cathode materials moved down 7.68% MoM to 58,100 tonnes in September, with an increase of 7.68% YoY. In September, the downstream demand was flat, but some enterprises focused on destocking, which led to the overall production decline.
In October, China's ternary cathode materials production is expected at 57,800 tonnes, a month-on-month decrease of 0.36% and a year-on-year increase of 13.5%.
Cobalt Powder
China's cobalt powder production dropped 2.11% MoM at 744 tonnes in September, which rose 10.06% compared to last year. The total production over January-September reached 7,204.5 tonnes, with a YoY increase of 12.85%. In September, the overall demand was sluggish, and the circulating low-priced sources capped the market prices. Meanwhile, the small and medium-sized enterprises' orders fell short of expectations, with a slight decrease in their operating rates. Therefore, the overall production in September was slightly down.
It is estimated that China's cobalt powder production will reach 740 tonnes in October, edging down 0.54% compared to September. In October, the overall production and sales are estimated to be flat amid weak downstream demand. However, the orders received by small and medium-sized enterprises are limited, weighing on the overall production in October.
Electrolytic Cobalt
China's electrolytic cobalt production reached 5,157 tonnes in September, with a MoM and YoY rising of 10.57% and 120.86% respectively. The production from January to September accumulated to 32,215 tonnes, an increase of 124.57% compared to the previous year. In September, the overall electrolytic cobalt market was moderate. With the overseas summer break coming to an end, there was a slight improvement in demand, though the transaction prices were low. Nevertheless, some producers either lifted the production or maintained full capacity, resulting in an increase in the total electrolytic cobalt production in September, although the stockpiling ahead of the National Day holiday starting October 1 was less than expected.
It is likely that China's electrolytic cobalt production may be up 2.77% MoM or 111.16% YoY at 5,300 tonnes in October. In October, the downstream demand is projected to stay flat and the consumers only purchase on rigid demand. However, the smelters will maintain high operating rates, leading to slight production increase in October.
Co3O4
China's Co3O4 production totaled 8,770 tonnes in September, a drop of 8.36% MoM and up 11.58% YoY. The production in the first nine months was 74,060 tonnes, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 38.08%. In September, the top-tier Co3O4 companies reported stable supply of raw materials and flat demand from downstream consumers. And most companies maintained normal production in the face of a mild improvement in the electronics sector. But some Co3O4 consumers were challenged by inventory buildup, leading to fewer demand for Co3O4.
China's Co3O4 is expected to reach 8,960 tonnes in October, up 2.17% on month and 34.11% on year with the Co3O4 enterprises maintaining normal production.
LMO
China's lithium manganese oxide (LMO) production stood at 9,300 tonnes in September, up 1.53% MoM.
LCO
China's lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) production reached 9,660 tonnes in September, a month-on-month increase of 3.32% and a year-on-year growth of 14.86%. In September, the orders from the electronics sector moved up slightly, and enterprises' shipments improved as well.
It is expected that the LCO production may rise 1.19% MoM in October on the backdrop of no significant changes in LCO cost and market demand.
LFP
The production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) in China reached 233,500 tonnes in September, a month-on-month increase of 8.7%. The growth is attributed to the expected demand growth during the traditional peak season, increases in the downstream power and energy storage sectors, and high operating rates among leading and emerging LFP manufacturers.
China's LFP production is expected to rise 2.2% to 238,700 tonnes in October, driven by the impact of policy incentives.
Anode
The anode material production of mainstream producers declined 4.42% MoM to 105,700 tonnes in September. This decrease was driven by reduced operating rates and a drop in the production and sales of electric vehicles. Additionally, leading companies prioritized fulfilling the executed orders and managed the inventory at a reasonable level. On the raw material side, prices remained low, which eased cost pressures. However, with demand weak and market prices relatively low, the improvement on actual profits for anode manufacturers has been minimal.
Separator
China's lithium-ion battery separator production stood at 1.773 billion sq.m. in September, a month-on-month increase of 0.74%. The production consisted of around 332 million sq.m. dry process separator (PP) and 1.45 billion sq.m. wet process separator (PE). It is expected that China's separator production will rise 4.34% MoM at 1.85 billion sq.m. in October.