EUROFER cuts 2024 EU steel consumption forecast amid demand weakness

In parallel, EUROFER also adjusted its 2025 ASC growth forecast down to 3.8% from an earlier 4.1%.

This downward revision highlights ongoing struggles in the EU's steel sector, which has been facing headwinds since the second quarter of 2022. The combination of global geopolitical tensions, soaring energy prices and rising production costs has pressured steel demand and constrained manufacturing. In the second quarter of 2024 alone, ASC in the EU reduced by 1.3% to 34.8 million tonnes, following a 3% drop in the previous quarter.

Domestic steel deliveries have mirrored this decline, with a further 1.7% contraction in Q2 to the 5.6% decline in Q1. Imports of steel products into the EU, meanwhile, decreased slightly by 1.5% in Q2 after rising 12% in the prior quarter, reflecting the weakened demand, though import volumes remain high, making up 28% of total ASC.

Persistent economic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and high interest rates are likely to sustain the downward trend in steel demand into the coming quarters. EUROFER warns of a particularly challenging environment for steel-using sectors in 2024, with ASC expected to drop by 2.7%, especially as construction and automotive sectors face their second consecutive recession. Despite a projected rebound, growth forecasts for the EU's steel-using sectors in 2025 have been modestly revised downwards to 1.6% from the previous 2.3%.

As EUROFER notes, with the economic effects from recent monetary easing expected to be lagged, EU steelmakers may experience another year of limited growth amid a difficult economic landscape.

Written by Adele Pan, panqinjie@mysteel.com

Edited by Alyssa Ren, rentingting@mysteel.com