Comparison of Key Economic and Social Development Goals in Government Work Reports Announced during 'Two Sessions' 2023-2025
Aspect |
2023 Government Work Report |
2024 Government Work Report |
2025 Government Work Report |
Economic Growth Targets |
GDP growth target: Around 5%; Urban unemployment rate: within 5.5%; CPI increase: Around 3% |
GDP growth target: Around 5%; Unemployment rate within 5.5%, with a target of over 12 million new jobs; CPI increase: Around 3% |
GDP growth target: Around 5%; Unemployment rate around 5.5%; CPI increase: Around 2% |
Fiscal Policy |
Deficit ratio: 3%; New special-purpose bonds: 3.8 trillion yuan; New tax and fee cuts exceeding 2 trillion yuan |
Deficit ratio: 3%; New special-purpose bonds: 3.9 trillion yuan; New tax and fee cuts of 1.5 trillion yuan, focusing on technology-based SMEs and advanced manufacturing; Issuance of 1 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds |
Deficit ratio: 4%; New special-purpose bonds: 4.4 trillion yuan, mainly for investment and construction, land acquisition and reserve, acquisition of existing commercial housing, and repayment of local government arrears to enterprises; Issuance of 500 billion yuan in special treasury bonds to support state-owned large commercial banks in replenishing capital; New issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds |
Monetary Policy |
Prudent monetary policy for precise areas M2 and total social financing growth matching nominal GDP growth; Average corporate loan interest rate of 4.17% (historically low) |
Flexible and appropriate, precise and effective; Expansion of the re-lending program for technological innovation to 500 billion yuan; Further reduction of corporate financing costs by 0.5 percentage points |
Moderately loose; Timely RRR (required reserve ratio) cuts and interest rate cuts; Greater efforts to ensure the healthy development of the property market and stock market; Maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level; Innovative financial instruments development to maintain financial market stability |
Industrial Policy |
Increase the deduction for manufacturing R&D expenses to 100%; The added value of the digital economy's core industries accounts for 10% of GDP; Energy consumption per unit of GDP reduced by about 2%; Promote ten actions for carbon peaking |
"New productive forces" written for the first time; Specialized and sophisticated enterprises to expand to 100,000; Launch of the "Artificial Intelligence +" action; The third batch of investment and financing pilots in the climate-relevant projects; Carbon market coverage to expand to 8 industries; Energy consumption per unit of GDP reduced by about 2.5% |
Upgrade industries by boosting consumption; Strengthen policy synergy; Cultivate and strengthen emerging and cutting-edge industries; Coordinate and promote CO2 and pollution reduction; Accelerate the development of a green and low-carbon economy; Actively and prudently promote CO2 emission peaking and carbon neutrality; Energy consumption per unit of GDP reduced by about 3% |
People's Livelihood |
Increase the per capita subsidy for residents' medical insurance by 30 yuan; the Pension increased for the 19th time by 3.8% |
Minimum standard for basic pension for urban and rural residents increased by 20%; Pilot projects for long-term care insurance expanded to 50 cities |
Greater efforts needed to stabilize and expand employment; Another 20 yuan will increase the minimum standard for basic pension for urban and rural residents, and the basic pension for retirees will be appropriately increased |
Opening Up |
29 new free trade pilot zones added; Total import and export value to be stabilized and upgraded in terms of the product quality |
Launch the fifth batch of free trade zone reform pilot experiences; Expand the negative list for digital trade |
No matter how the external environment changes, we will always adhere to opening up, steadily expand institutional opening up, and orderly expand autonomous opening up and unilateral opening up, so as to promote reform and development through opening up |
Risk Prevention |
Prevent and resolve risks of high-quality leading real estate enterprises; Local government debt risks to be made controllable |
Establish a "white list" for local debt risk resolution; Promote the "three major projects"( Construction of affordable/subsidized housing, public infrastructure, and urban village renovation) in the real estate sector |
Effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, and firmly hold the bottom line of preventing systemic risks; Continue to work hard to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market; Steadily resolve local government debt risks; Actively prevent financial risks |
Mysteel has introduced a daily Chinese Macro Policy Sentiment Index to reflect whether the government's stance is perceived as supportive, restrictive, or neutral with respect to economic growth, stability, and specific sectors. According to our backtesting results, we observed that the extent of Chinese economic policy support after last October waned, and it recently hit the historical low of the past six years. Contact us at inquiries@mysteel.com to get more details.
China's Two Sessions set the official GDP growth target and outlines major economic policies for the year:
China (Energy Transition) Policy Persepective Report -March Edition: This month's report will feature an in-depth analysis of key takeaways from the Two Sessions and their implications for China's annual energy transition and policy-driven market. Click to know more.
Written by lishuang@mysteel.com
Editted by nickeyfu@mysteel.com
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