Mysteel: China primary aluminum production up 1.5% in June

According to Mysteel, China's total installed capacity of primary aluminum is 44.67 MTPA by the end of June, unchanged on month and up 0.5% on year. The operating capacity is 41.3 MTPA, up 1.7% on month mainly due to restarts in Yunnan and new commissioning in Guizhou. However, it was down 0.1% on year mainly due to power-driven cuts in Yunnan.

Discussing by regions, Shandong holds the highest proportion of capacity. Both installed and operating capacity are 7.46 MTPA by the end of June, down 0.1% on month and 7.0% on year. The on-year decline happens due to capacity relocation, in which Weiqiao transferred to Yunnan and Nanshan sold part of its quotas to Guizhou.

Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region's installed and operating capacity is 6.42 MTPA and 6.27 MTPA, up 3.2% and 2.3% on year, respectively. This is thanks to SPIC's greenfield project in Baiyinhua, Inner Mongolia, which ramped up the capacity.

The installed capacity in Yunnan is 5.64 MTPA, unchanged on month and up 4.8% on year. The capacity increases as a result of capacity transfer from other provinces. The operating capacity is 3.89 MTPA, up 19.3% on month but down 21.4% on year. The on-year slump is caused by power control in the region due to insufficient supply while the on-month rebound is driven by restarts from late June after high precipitation in the region.

Gansu's installed and operating capacity is 3.05 MTPA and 3.03 MTPA, up 7.8% and 22.8% on year, respectively. Guizhou's installed capacity is 1.71 MTPA, unchanged on month and up 24.1% on year. The operation capacity is 1.40 MTPA, up 6.3% both on month and on year. Both regions have new projects commissioned, while Denggao in Guizhou and Zhongrui in Gansu have ramped their capacity up, leading to the capacity increment in the regions.

In terms of Guangxi, the installed capacity is 3.05 MTPA, unchanged on month and down 0.7% on year. The operating capacity is 2.86 MTPA, unchanged on month but surging 40.0% on year driven by resumption in the region.

Data: Mysteel

China's total primary aluminum production was 3.37 million tonnes in June, down 0.69% on year. Daily output was 112,210 tonnes, slightly higher than 111,100 tonnes in May. The total primary aluminum production was 20.07 million tonnes in H1, up 1.5% on year driven by new commissioning in Gansu, Guizhou, and Inner Mongolia as well as resumption in Sichuan, Guizhou, Guangxi, etc.

Data: Mysteel

Mysteel predicts that China's aluminum operating capacity will keep rising in July primarily driven by the continuing restarts in Yunnan. Some may concern about the impact of the reduction in power consumption in Sichuan, but we believe the impact will be limited as some local smelters are not operating at full capacity yet, leading to a relatively sufficient power supply.

Mysteel aluminum capacity and production data covers all aluminum smelters in China, and can be provided on weekly and monthly basis. For more details, please contact yangyiying@mysteel.com.