Mysteel Reports and Analysis on Raw Materials

Navigate turmoil and thrive in China’s oil market with forward-looking analysis, data-driven forecasts, and actionable insights through 2030.

• Extensive Product Coverage Across the Petroleum Value Chain: Covers crude, refined oil, naphtha, and fuel oil across multiple dimensions, including supply-demand balance, import/export trends, profitability, and downstream demand outlook.
• Macroeconomic Forecasts & Energy Demand: Examines China’s GDP growth, primary energy consumption, and energy mix trends to illustrate how the policy will impact oil demand through 2030.
• Crude Oil Supply-demand Balance & Import Dynamics: Provides a forward-looking view of China’s crude oil supply–demand balance, including domestic production and consumption trends, evolving import dependence, and import quota impacts on supply security through 2030.
• Refining Capacity & Utilization: Analyzes new refining capacity additions, utilization rate trends, and independent refiners’ performance (profitability and feedstock use), highlighting evolving refining dynamics.
• Refined Products & Feedstocks Outlook: Offers granular supply–demand forecasts for refined fuels (gasoline, diesel, jet) and key feedstocks (naphtha, fuel oil), covering demand drivers (e.g. EV adoption), export outlooks, and shifts in consumption patterns for a full view of product balances through 2030.
• Value Chain Margins & Profitability: Examines profitability across the petroleum value chain, covering crude price trends, refining crack spreads (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel), refined export margins, retail fuel margins, petrochemical spreads (naphtha-to-PP/PX), and fuel oil margins.
• Policy & Regulatory Insights: Highlights implications of China’s 20th Third Plenary (focus on "development and security") and “Two New Areas” initiatives, detailing upcoming regulations (consumption tax reform, independent refinery feedstock rules, export rebate cuts) and new green fuel policies shaping the oil market.

Publishing date: May, 2025

Including - Monthly PDF and EXCEL

Built on granular and regularly updated data, cross-sector linkages analysis, and monthly model updates, this report empowers traders, suppliers, procurement teams, financial institutions, risk managers, and policy research institutes to anticipate shifts in demand, imports, and prices across the full natural gas value chain.

• Full-chain Data Coverage & Rolling Forecasts: Delivers comprehensive coverage across production, imports, storage, and end-use consumption, providing a 12-month rolling forecast updated monthly. Tracks structural changes and short-term fluctuations to help users capture early signals of market turning points.
• Granular Sector Insights -Seven End-use Segments: Breaks down demand into seven consumption sectors - residential, heating, commercial, transport, industrial, power generation, and chemicals - revealing how each segment evolves under changing macroeconomics, policies, and seasonality.
• Cross-sector Linkages & Exclusive Truck Flow Data: Goes beyond traditional gas reports by integrating cross-sector analysis with regular updated indicators from steel, glass, paper, construction, and photovoltaic sectors. Incorporates exclusive heavy-duty truck operating mileage data to monitor China’s fastest-growing and most data-scarce consumption channel.
• Import Structure & Supply Security Analysis: Assesses evolving import dynamics between pipeline gas and LNG, distinguishing long-term contract execution and spot market trends. Evaluates the impact of changing pipeline inflows, global LNG supply growth, and terminal utilization on China’s supply security and pricing.
• Macroeconomic & Policy Drivers of Demand: Links natural gas consumption to China’s macroeconomic trajectory and energy transition policies, analyzing how fiscal stimulus, trade shifts, and industrial restructuring influence demand growth through 2026.
• Actionable Insights for Procurement & Trading Decisions: Provides scenario-based insights that empower users to anticipate market turning points, assess pricing and import risks, and strengthen strategic planning.

Publishing day: Every month on 12th, except for Chinese public holidays.

Including — Monthly PDF covering

• Monthly subscription and exclusive in-house presentation, extended consultation upon request
• Navigate through China's fast-evolving energy policies with an organized roadmap
• Identify emerging investment opportunities under China's decarbonization initiative with economic competitiveness analysis
• Focused study from the national and regional levels on specific markets
• Spotlight research on updated energy transition market regulations and policy orientation

Including – Weekly EXCEL covering

• Feedstock Price, including
  • Feedstock DES China Prices, Premiums and Discounts by type
  • Refined oil ex-refinery Price
• Refinery Relative Data, 100% coverage, including
  • Maintenance Schedule
  • Feedstock Throughput
  • Feedstock Port Inventory
  • Feedstock Arrivals & Shipping Schedule
  • Imported Crude Oil Quota Usage
  • Output, Sales Volume and Inventory of Refined oil
• Domestic Refined Oil Trade Flow
• Production Cost & Profit
• New Commissioning Schedule of Refining Capacities

Including – Weekly EXCEL covering

• CFR & China Domestic Price
• China LPG Supply, Data coverage >95%
  • Output by Region
  • Unit Maintenance Schedule
  • Imports & Shipping Arrivals
• China LPG demand, 100% Data Coverage
  • Feedstock Demand from Downstream Industries (Total, PDH, Butane)
  • Olefin Deep Processing Unit Maintenance Schedule
  • Olefin & Alkanes Deep Processing Units Operating Rate
• Inventory of Producers, Ports (100% Data Coverage), and Distributors
• Importers' Profits
  • Primary Importers' Gross Import Profits
  • Production Profits of PDH & Isobutane Dehydrogenation Units
• Alkane Processing Units Maintenance Schedule
• Existing & Upcoming PDH Units

Including – Weekly EXCEL covering

• Production and Operation, 100% coverage
  • Production Capacity & Operating and Utilization Rate
  • Output & Sales Volume by Truck
  • Plant Construction & Maintenance Schedule
• Storage and Transportation, including:
  • Inventories of LNG plants and terminals,
  • Storage Capacity (100% coverage)
• Downstream Consumption, including:
  • Apparent Consumption (100% coverage)
  • LNG Plant Sales (84% coverage)
• Economic Comparison
  • LNG VS Diesel in Vehicle-use
  • LNG VS LPG in Industrial Fuel
• LNG Imports & Shipping Arrival Schedules (100% coverage)

Including – Monthly PDF and EXCEL 

• A monthly update on a 12-month supply and demand rolling forecasts for crude, gasoline, and diesel 
• Incorporates macroeconomic and industrial indicators, with corresponding market impact
• Detailed projections on gasoline & diesel supply by group 
• Analysis of key driving factors for the gasoline & diesel demand 
• Spot export arbitrage opportunities for oil products 

Comprehensive Overview of the China Oil Market at a Glance

Covering concise, data-driven analysis tailored specifically for quick insights and effective decision-making:

• Comprehensive market data coverage – refinery & crude oil, gasoline, gasoil, kerosene, naphtha, LPG, bitumen, MTBE, and fuel oil, with regular analysis of production profits by refining units, price trends, utilization rate, inventory, shipment, and consumption.
• Exclusive refinery insights – Weekly updates on CDU capacity utilization, crude throughput, maintenance schedules, and production changes at state-owned and independent refineries.
• Data-driven market commentary – Covers price fluctuations, inventory levels, refining margins, profitability, and other driving factors.
• Latest industry news & developments – Timely updates on policy shifts, trade activities, refinery operations, and geopolitical factors impacting China’s oil market.
• Yearly trend tracking in key indicators – Includes historical trend curves for production, inventory, and capacity utilization rate, offering a seasonality perspective on market movements.
• Market outlook next week- Includes short-term price trend outlook, seasonal supply and demand expectations, policy-driven market shifts, and macroeconomic risk assessments.

Publishing day: Every Friday by end of business day (EOB), excluding Chinese public holidays.