A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260310

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market

The most-traded GFEX LC contract staged rapid rally post the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, with the settlement price achieving a weekly increase of around 17% compared with the last business day before the holiday. And the support came from both the fundamentals and sentiment front. On the fundamentals, the downstream cathode plants mostly maintained active production during the holiday, and the in-plant lithium carbonate inventory held by Mysteel's sampled cathode and battery cell plants reported a reduction of 13.92% by February 27 compared with before the holiday, offering firm support to lithium carbonate prices.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260210

The most-traded Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) LC contract recorded another bearish week, with the settlement price losing 14.08% as of Friday February 6 compared to the previous Friday, primarily due to the lack of new catalysts as well as the ripple effect of the persistently falling non-ferrous metal prices. Currently, with the CNY holiday approaching and downstream players finishing stockpiling, the lithium carbonate spot market is expected to gradually come to a standstill. Near-term events to be watched including the resumption progress of Jianxiawo mine, power battery demand recovery post CNY holiday, as well as the production scheduling in March.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260203

The most-traded GFEX LC contract experienced an extensive pullback last week, with the settlement prices falling for several consecutive days though the weekly average price managed a mild increase compared with the previous week. The lithium carbonate futures price pulling back persistently last week was primarily attributed to enhanced regulatory efforts from GFEX aiming at tackling the overwhelming speculative activities, as well as the lack of new bullish factors. And the longs left the market accordingly after paying off. In addition, the plummet of non-ferrous metals prices in the second half of last week also weighed on the market sentiment.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260127

The most-traded GFEX LC contract recorded a winning week ending Friday January 23, with the settlement price rising 15.8% from the previous Friday January 16. The increase was partly triggered by the resurfacing supply concerns. Elsewhere, Mysteel's tracking of the daily spot transactions indicated that the overall lithium carbonate spot trading stood at 8,625 tonnes last week, an increase of nearly 25% from the previous session and a relatively high level since Mysteel's recording. Meanwhile, the weekly survey of the lithium carbonate physical inventory showed that the overall inventory level was back to the downtrend last week though minimal, pointing to firm downstream demand.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260120

The most-traded GFEX LC contract showed an inverted V-shaped trend last week, with the rebound fueled by the phase-out of value added tax (VAT) export tax rebate for batteries. However, the prices gradually pulled back in the second half and even hit limit down on Friday January 16 due to cooling sentiment as the fundamentals were largely unchanged, as well as enhanced regulatory efforts, prompting longs to exit the market after paying off. Nevertheless, the spot transactions of lithium carbonate turned active during the price pullback period, indicating robust downstream demand. In addition, influenced by the export tax rebate adjustment, the ternary battery sector has shown a rush to export.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260113

The most-traded GFEX LC contract opened 2026 with constant gains, and the settlement price marked a weekly increase of 18.68% as of January 9 compared to the last trading day of 2025, with bullish support mainly from the bullish outlook. The LFP producers carried out maintenance on several production lines as was disclosed earlier, and the lithium carbonate market was near a tight balance. Downstream restocking progress still showed little substantial advancement. Nevertheless, supported by low downstream inventories, lithium carbonate prices continued the upward trend.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260106

China's lithium carbonate futures price experienced a short pullback after climbing for several consecutive days, and hovered rangebound in the last two trading days of 2025, closing the year at Yuan 120,640/tonne, an increase of nearly 55% from Yuan 77,860/tonne at the beginning of the year. Nonetheless, bullish sentiment sustained. The detailed policies regarding 2026 national subsidies have been officially released. In addition, the extensive overhaul-triggered production cuts among leading LFP cathode factories signal the suppliers' firm stance to raise the prices based on optimistic outlook, though it will slightly reduce the lithium carbonate consumption in January 2026.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20251230

Following the first environmental impact assessment notice of CATL's Jianxiawo mine released last Friday December 19, the lithium prices recorded another winning week, with the most-traded GFEX LC contract gaining more than 15% in the past session (December 20 26). On the news front, three major cathode active materials plants disclosed their outage plans recently, with the purpose of capturing the pricing power in negotiations with downstream battery cell factories.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20251223

After hovering rangebound for several weeks, the most-traded GFEX LC contract broke the range and regained momentum after progress concerning Jianxiawo's restart came along. On the fundamentals, Mysteel's survey of 97 sampled players indicated sustained lithium carbonate inventory drawdown among industrial players. However, the marketable inventory held by traders and lithium refineries further increased as high lithium prices put the downstream players on the sidelines, with the daily spot trading volume remaining at a low level. On the contrary, the refineries actively sold to the traders when lithium carbonate prices were above Yaun 105,000/tonne, resulting in continued accumulation of traders' stocks.