A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260915

The most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract hovered rangebound in the first half of the week but slumped and touched a low of Yuan 130,000/tonne last Friday September 11 amidst the convergence of bears. First, ternary cathode output showed signs of contraction, contrasting with LFP's continued strength. Second, rumors of a leading energy storage provider halving September output and cutting full-year capacity by 30% sparked demand concerns; though later debunked, the sentiment shock had already set in. Third, expectations of 2027 lithium oversupply cannot be disproved until year-end, capping prices. And the macro headwinds further weighed on the non-ferrous complex.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260908

The most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract on Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) showed weakness in the session ending September 4, with the settlement price falling 5.74% against the previous Friday August 28, data showed. While the supply side has maintained rapid growth, the market transactions were constrained by high prices, though the trading picked up approaching the weekend when the lithium prices slumped. More importantly, the lithium carbonate inventory drawdown slowed last week, triggering concerns over the demand sustainability, especially when there was rumor that some leading battery cell producer lowered the production scheduling for September.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260901

Mysteel believes destocking remains the key theme, with near-term focus on whether prices can sustain above Yuan 160,000/tonne. Since August, the market has been driven by strong LFP schedules, tight ore supply, and recurring restart expectations for Jianxiawo, with peakseason tightness increasingly priced in. Whether prices hold above this level will determine if the current rally can extend. If production schedules continue to exceed expectations and destocking accelerates, prices could push higher from mid-September.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260825

The most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract on Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) stood mostly on the upward trajectory in the session ending August 21, with the settlement price rising 2.38% from the previous Friday August 14, data showed. The fundamentals remained largely similar to the previous session, with momentum driven primarily by sustained destocking and early signs of demand resilience in the upcoming traditional seasonal high. At the same time, feedback from leading battery cell producers on overseas orders and 2027 production schedules has been better than expected, prompting a notable upward revision in longterm demand expectations.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260818

The most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract on Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) rallied in the session ending August 17, with the settlement price rising 7.34% from the previous Friday August 14, data showed. While the expectations of future supply additions and supply growth outpacing demand in 2027 continued to cap the market, the lithium carbonate prices finally staged a phased rally thanks to firm fundamentals, where Mysteel's tracking of lithium carbonate inventory recorded another week of destocking since early April 2026, when the inventory stood above 200,000 tonnes.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260811

The most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract on GFEX showed signs of some recovery in the session ending August 7, with the settlement price ticking up 1.25% from the previous Friday July 31, data showed. The market dynamics remained little changed, with market players trading around firm fundamentals and future supply additions. When the lithium carbonate and LFP cathode production scheduling of August suggested sustained inventory drawdown, Mysteel's weekly tracking of lithium carbonate reinforced expectations of tight supply-demand balance. Based on 207 sampled players, the lithium carbonate stocks across the industry chain fell over 7,000 tonnes in the session ending August 5.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260804

The most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract on Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) hovered rangebound in the first half of the week ending July 31, but showed palpable losses on the last trading day last week, with the settlement price closing the session with a weekly decline of 2.27% against the previous Friday July 24, data showed. Despite sustained inventory drawdown, the market lacked solid upward driving force with the prices giving up previous gains in the latter half of the week amidst intensive cancellations of GFEX warrants and mounting risk aversion needs by month-end. In addition, the monthly spread remained in backwardation structure, pointing to pessimism over future market.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260728

The most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract at Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) showed a V-shaped trend in the session ending July 24, with the settlement price falling 5.69% from the previous Friday July 20. Spot market activity remained subdued, largely because downstream buyers had built ample inventories during the earlier price decline, leaving a significant portion of lithium carbonate stocks accumulated downstream. As a result, despite lower absolute prices, downstream demand for spot purchases has remained weak. On the supply side, August is expected to see weaker supply and stronger demand, with the balance sheet pointing to a significant drawdown due to continued feedstock constraints.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260721

The most-traded GFEX (Guangzhou Futures Exchange) lithium carbonate contract hovered rangebound last week, with the settlement price largely staying flat as of Friday July 17 against the previous Friday July 10, data showed. The session ending July 17 saw the continued tug-of-war between recent supply tightness and future supply ramp-ups. In addition, late last Friday, China announced a consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries: 2% from September 1, 2026, rising to 4% from September 1, 2027. A production rush in August is likely, but capacity headroom may limit the actual boost. The tax will raise battery costs, accelerate the squeeze on highcost capacity, and shift demand toward taxexempt alternatives over time.

A Glance of China Lithium-ion Battery Materials Market 20260714

The most-traded GFEX (Guangzhou Futures Exchange) lithium carbonate futures contract returned to the downward trajectory in the week ending July 10, with the settlement price pulling back nearly 10% against the previous Friday July 3, giving up almost all the gains in the earlier session, data showed. On the spot market, lithium carbonate spot transactions reported by the traders improved significantly compared to the previous week, but the overall volume was modest as most cathode plants relied on long-term and tolling agreements for feedstock. Looking ahead, the lithium carbonate prices are projected to hover rangebound, with focuses on Jianxiawo's progress, overseas shipment, demand resilience, and warrants.