Mysteel has adjusted its forecast for the balance of China's aluminum market in 2022 and 2023 based on the data of supply and demand sides for the first 10 months and the judgment for the fourth quarter this year.
Mysteel predicts that China will have a shortage of 340,000 tonnes of aluminum in 2022 and an oversupply of approximately 580,000 tonnes in 2023.
On the supply side, in 2022, although there were large-scale production cuts in Southwest China due to power shortage in the third quarter, aluminum production output will still record a new high owing to newly added and resumed production throughout the year. The overall supply of aluminum remains largely flat from the previous year with the decreasing of imports. In 2023, restarts will be a major contributor to the increase in aluminum production.
On the demand side, Mysteel predicts that China will see a growth rate of 1.6% in 2022. The decrease in construction sector will be partially offset by the increase in new energy vehicles and photovoltaic sector. The impact of the pandemic on metal demand lingers .
In 2023, it is expected that the growth rate of aluminum demand may reach 2.24%. The optimization of pandemic control measures may boost China's domestic aluminum demand. Furthermore, domestic aluminum consumption is gradually approaching the plateau, Mysteel noted.
Source: Mysteel
Written by Zerlina, yangzirui@mysteel.com
