MYSTEEL: Exports seen key as clouds loom over China's HRC market in '25

Against a background of swelling domestic supplies of hot-rolled coils (HRC), China's manufacturing sector is expected to partially support demand for hot coils this year, according to Mysteel's report for the segment in 2025. However, the average price of domestic coils will soften this year with heightened price volatility, while intensifying trade friction is already casting a shadow over China's HRC exports, the report warns.

During this year, China's spot price of Q235B 4.75mm HRC in Shanghai under Mysteel's assessment is seen averaging Yuan 3,418/tonne ($470/t) including the VAT, lower by 6.2% from the 2024 average, with rising hot strip mill capacity and loose supply being blamed. "The increase in new HRC production capacity will