How will China's steel exports fare as anti-dumping duties mount?

China's steel exports have experienced steady growth over the past five years. In 2024, China’s steel exports reached a record 110.71 million tonnes, marking a 22.7% on-year increase and more than doubling (106.3%) compared to 2020.

However, this success is now facing headwinds. On February 20, South Korea enforced temporary anti-dumping duties of up to 38% on Chinese hot-rolled coils (HRC) and thick plates, followed by Vietnam, which imposed tariffs of up to 28% on similar products just one day later.

South Korea and Vietnam are both major markets for China's steel exports. In 2024, China exported 1.47 million tonnes of medium and heavy plates to South Korea (14.1% of total exports) and 8.14 million tonnes of HRC to Vietnam (30.1% of total exports). In this context, these new tariffs could significantly reduce exports to these two markets, with potential losses of over 8.8 million tonnes annually.

Written by Janie Liang, liangjiani@mysteel.com
Edited by Hannah Yang, yangqi@mysteel.com