|
Product |
Price Change (Apr 28 vs. Apr 3, excl. new tariffs) |
Market Response |
Latest Update |
|
Ethane |
-16% (incl. tariffs: +89%) |
Satellite Chemical plans to mitigate the tariff impact through tolling processing and ethylene swap deals. |
Market sources said China is considering tariff exemptions on select U.S. imports, including ethane and polyethylene (PE), though no official confirmation has been made. |
|
Propane |
+7.8% (CFR South China, refrigerated cargoes; primarily Middle East origin, no new U.S. deals) |
Available inventory and new arrivals are only sufficient to cover demand through mid-May. PDH plant utilization is expected to drop sharply below 50% from June, with some producers warning of potential shutdowns. |
- |
|
LPG |
+10.6% (CFR South China, refrigerated cargoes; primarily Middle East origin, no new U.S. deals) |
Rising feedstock costs have pushed up MTBE production costs. Surges in domestic residential LPG prices further dampened market sentiment. Some MTBE producers have already cut output or suspended operations. However, China remains structurally oversupplied in MTBE, and production curtailments are unlikely to materially affect market availability. |
- |
|
Petcoke |
+7.5% (Supported by firm downstream demand) |
Medium- and low-sulfur shot petcoke has limited substitutability. Some producers are facing cost pressures and have slightly reduced utilization. |
- |
|
PE |
LLDPE: +1.3% LDPE: -3.1% HDPE: -2.4% |
Tariff concerns have dampened import demand. |
Market sources said China is considering tariff exemptions on select U.S. imports, including ethane and PE, though no official confirmation has been made. |
|
Ethylene Glycol (EG) |
-10.6% |
U.S. EG accounts for just 3% of China's supply. With global oversupply and low margins, U.S.-origin cargoes can be easily replaced. |
- |
|
Natural Gas |
No new imports in April |
Following China's February retaliatory tariffs on U.S. LNG and crude oil, imports from the U.S. have come to a near standstill in 2025. |
- |
|
Crude Oil |
- |
Source: OilChem, GL Consulting
Nearly a month after the rollout of "reciprocal tariffs" between the U.S. and China, the energy and petrochemical markets are showing diverging price trends and emerging supply risks.
Price Divergence: U.S. Offers Weaken, Substitutes Rally
As of April 28, 2025, prices of U.S.-origin energy and petrochemical product imports into China have broadly declined, though some, such as petroleum coke, have gained on steady downstream demand. As a key global chemical consumer and one of the largest buyers of U.S. energy products, China's tariff move has left U.S. exporters with limited options for alternative markets of comparable scale. Ethane, for example, has seen its DES price (excluding new tariffs) fall by 16% since April 3. In contrast, prices of substitute supplies have strengthened. Since April, no new propane deals have been reported between Chinese buyers and U.S. exporters. CFR South China prices, which mainly reflect Middle East supply, have risen 7.8%, highlighting the rising cost of alternative sourcing.
Supply Pressure Builds: Stable April, Risky May
The full impact on trade flows has yet to materialize. April imports and domestic production remained stable. However, the risk will rise sharply as the tariff policy takes full effect from May 13, particularly for ethane and propane. Chinese propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants currently hold feedstock inventories sufficient only through mid-May. Their utilization rates are expected to fall from the current 63% to below 50% in late May, with some plants warning of possible shutdowns.
(For company-level feedback and details, please refer to previous analysis in China Policy Perspective April 2025 Issue)
The above content is the major conclusions and highlights extracted from China (Energy Transition) Policy Perspective. To get detailed full text, send an email to glconsulting@mysteel.com.
