China's 1# refined copper spot prices stood at Yuan 79,214/tonne on July 9, further dropping by Yuan 439/tonne day on day, according to Mysteel's assessment. Specifically, spot prices in Shanghai ranged between Yuan 79,050-79,580/tonne, averaging at Yuan 79,260/tonne. The 1# refined copper spot premiums in Shanghai also saw a day-on-day decline of Yuan 15/tonne, falling to Yuan 35/tonne.
As copper prices trended lower, China's refined copper overall trading gravity center shifted downward yesterday, with traders boosting transactions and downstream enterprises increasing delivery. Mysteel's survey covering 53 refined copper trading enterprises (including traders, smelters, and downstream fabricators) in China indicated that the daily spot transaction volume totaled 34,100 tonnes on July 9, growing by 7,700 tonnes or 29.41% from the previous day.
Mysteel's 31 Chinese copper rod sample manufacturers with a total annual capacity of 6.01 million tonnes reported that order volumes surged by 15,200 tonnes or 124.05% day on day, reaching 27,400 tonnes on July 9. The increase in copper rod orders was mainly concentrated in the refined copper rod market, where transactions improved notably following the decline in copper prices. Although secondary copper rod prices also dropped, enterprises faced limited end-user demand, leading to primarily need-based procurement. Overall, copper rod demand did not see a substantial recovery. Other copper semis sectors, such as copper tubes, also remained in the consumption off-season, with low operating rates across manufacturers. A significant short-term demand rebound in China's copper semis markets is unlikely.
Overall, while copper prices softened, the recovery in downstream consumption was limited. With near-month backwardation still wide, China's refined copper spot premiums are expected to remain under pressure.
On the raw material side, copper concentrate treatment charges (TCs) stayed at a low level, while copper scrap prices declined alongside falling copper prices, narrowing the refined-scrap copper price spread. Amid heightened market volatility, many copper scrap traders suspended quotations and adopted a wait-and-see stance, resulting in tighter market supply.
President Trump announced a new round of tariffs on eight countries, including a steep 50% tariff on Brazil, pushing COMEX copper prices higher. However, the short implementation window caused significant risks for exporters, likely easing the concentration of global copper flows into the U.S. market. As a result, supply in non-U.S. markets may temporarily rise, placing downward pressure on copper prices.
With the delivery period approaching, China's refined copper market is unlikely to see a notable increase in demand in the short term. Meanwhile, low social inventory levels may keep holders reluctant to lower premiums. Consequently, China's copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range this week.
For more in-depth insights, long-term outlook, and comprehensive data on China's copper market, contact us via <xuzhongping@mysteel.com> to subscribe to Mysteel Copper Weekly/Monthly, and Mysteel Copper Database.
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Written by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
Edited by Paula Xu, xuzhongping@mysteel.com
