China's refined copper social inventory reached 148,100 tonnes on July 10, rising by 18,700 tonnes from July 3 and by 700 tonnes from July 7, according to Mysteel's survey.
Data Source: Mysteel
Specifically, social inventory in Shanghai increased by 6,000 tonnes from the previous week to 97,000 tonnes, driven by higher volumes of both domestic arrivals and customs-cleared imports this week. Meanwhile, although copper prices softened, the wide backwardation in the near-month contract and weak downstream demand limited warehouse outflows. Looking ahead to next week, refined copper imports are expected to continue rising, though the inflow volume may be limited. Following the contract rollover period, downstream purchasing demand may pick up, potentially leading to a decline in Shanghai's inventory.
Inventory at Guangdong and Jiangsu grew by 5,200 tonnes and 6,300 tonnes from July 3, and by 1,600 tonnes and 2,800 tonnes from July 7, reaching 23,900 tonnes and 18,700 tonnes on July 10, respectively.
Guangdong's refined copper social inventory rose week on week this week, mainly due to increased shipments from smelters, higher warehouse arrivals, as well as sluggish downstream consumption. With the delivery and contract rollover period approaching, market arrivals are expected to increase further next week, likely leading to a continued slight rise in Guangdong's inventory.
However, China's refined copper bonded inventory fell by 500 tonnes from July 3 but grew by 1,700 tonnes from July 7 to 72,500 tonnes on July 10, based on Mysteel's statistics. Bonded inventory rose by 2,500 tonnes from July 3 and by 2,000 tonnes from July 7 in Shanghai, but fell by 3,000 tonnes from July 3 and by 300 tonnes from July 7 in Guangdong, reaching 67,000 tonnes and 5,500 tonnes on July 10, respectively.
Data Source: Mysteel
China's refined copper bonded inventory declined slightly this week. Although smelter exports continued flowing into bonded warehouses, some were delivered to LME warehouses, resulting in a net decrease. Moving forward, more export cargoes are expected to arrive at some warehouses. However, despite some improvement in the import ratio, mainstream branded copper will remain difficult to clear through customs. Consequently, China's bonded zone inventory is expected to edge up slightly next week.
For more in-depth insights, long-term outlook, and comprehensive data on China's copper market, contact us via <xuzhongping@mysteel.com> to subscribe to Mysteel Copper Weekly/Monthly, and Mysteel Copper Database.
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Written by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
Edited by Paula Xu, xuzhongping@mysteel.com
