China's 1# refined copper spot prices stood at Yuan 79,636/tonne on July 22, rising by Yuan 420/tonne day on day, according to Mysteel's assessment. Specifically, spot prices in Shanghai ranged between Yuan 79,630-80,010/tonne, averaging at Yuan 79,730/tonne. The 1# refined copper average spot premiums in Shanghai saw a day-on-day increase of Yuan 15/tonne, reaching Yuan 200/tonne.
China's copper prices fluctuated upwards on July 22, though spot premiums in different markets experienced varied trends. Refined copper spot premiums rebounded in the Shanghai market amid relatively tight supply and a bullish outlook among some traders, resulting in high offers and reluctance to sell. In Tianjin, refined copper supply also tightened, prompting more active selling. However, elevated copper prices continued to dampen downstream demand. In contrast, increased arrivals in Guangdong led some traders to lower premiums to facilitate sales, and traders in Chongqing's refined copper market with ample supply significantly cut premiums, prompting downstream purchases at low levels. Overall, only Shanghai saw a recovery in refined copper spot premiums, while other major markets recorded declines, with daily trading volumes rising slightly. Mysteel's survey covering 53 refined copper trading enterprises (including traders, smelters, and downstream fabricators) in China indicated that the daily spot transaction volume totaled 31,300 tonnes on July 22, rising by 4,600 tonnes or 17.35% from the previous trading day.
Concerning downstream copper semis markets, Mysteel's 31 Chinese copper rod sample manufacturers with a total annual capacity of 6.01 million tonnes and 6 sample traders reported that order volumes decreased by 900 tonnes or 9.93% day on day, reaching 8,300 tonnes on July 22, with refined copper rod transactions declining and secondary staying weak. Subdued demand persisted in the refined copper rod market. Meanwhile, many secondary copper rod producers faced insufficient raw materials and low operating rates, with elevated copper scrap prices also reducing their willingness to lower finished product prices. The continued rise in copper prices further dampened purchasing sentiment among downstream and end-use enterprises. Without a stabilization in copper prices, downstream transactions are unlikely to recover significantly, and the overall rebound in China's refined copper consumption will remain limited.
On the raw material side, mainstream copper concentrate treatment charges (TCs) stayed around -$43/dmt, and Mysteel's price coefficients for 20% and 23% grade copper concentrate in China have been experiencing increases, reflecting persistent supply shortages. As copper prices rose on July 22, market activity in the copper scrap sector increased, with smooth spot circulation. The refined-scrap copper price spread widened but remained below a reasonable range. Downstream copper scrap processors, still under pressure from low raw material inventory, actively replenished stocks, while copper anode processors actively stepped up price negotiations, resulting in more copper scrap flows into the anode smelting sector. In the second half of 2025, China's copper scrap supply is anticipated to remain robust, with a growing contribution to refined copper production. Mysteel expects copper scrap to play a key role in maintaining the market supply-demand balance throughout the year.
Looking ahead, with limited short-term growth in China's refined copper supply and constrained prospects for a downstream demand rebound, China's copper market is expected to maintain a weak supply-demand balance. As a result, spot premiums are likely to remain strong but with limited upward potential, generally fluctuating within a range of Yuan 100–300/tonne.
For more in-depth insights, long-term outlook, and comprehensive data on China's copper market, contact us via <xuzhongping@mysteel.com> to subscribe to Mysteel Copper Weekly/Monthly, and Mysteel Copper Database.
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Written by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
Edited by Paula Xu, xuzhongping@mysteel.com
