Aluminum sheet market reshaped in 2025: China on top, Italy rising, US losing ground

The reshuffling reflects a mix of policy changes in Beijing, energy and raw material costs in Europe and the US, shifting demand patterns, and rising competition from newer players.

China holds the crown

China remains the world's largest supplier. Exports in H1 2025 were valued at USD 5 billion, up slightly from USD 4.9 billion a year earlier. Yet the volume tells another story: shipments slipped from 1.6 million tonnes to 1.5 million tonnes.

That decline is tied directly to Beijing's decision to abolish export tax rebates for aluminum products on December 1, 2024. The rebate programme had allowed producers to sell aggressively abroad, inflating volumes in 2024. Its removal is expected to trim Chinese aluminum exports by about 5 million tonnes a year, and already early-2025 shipments were down 8 per cent from the same period in 2024.

Still, the higher export value shows where China is heading: away from bulk, low-margin material and toward more specialised, high-value aluminum that aligns with its domestic environmental and industrial agenda.

American exports shrink

The US export story is less encouraging. In H1 2024, exports were worth USD 1.6 billion with nearly 300,000 tonnes shipped. This year, the numbers dropped to USD 1.39 billion and 241,783 tonnes.

High production costs at home, soaring electricity bills for smelters, and softer demand from carmakers and builders have all squeezed the sector. On top of that, ongoing trade tensions - particularly tariffs on Chinese aluminum - disrupted flows and eroded competitiveness. Supply chain issues only added to the drag, leaving US exporters struggling to maintain their place.

Germany struggles with energy costs and carbon rules

Germany, one of Europe's leading aluminum exporters, saw its shipments fall both in value and volume. Exports declined from USD 2.3 billion and 565,686 tonnes in H1 2024 (till May) to USD 2.2 billion and 439,395 tonnes in H1 2025 (till May).

Analysts attribute this drop to soaring energy costs across Europe and the impact of stringent carbon emission regulations that disproportionately affect energy-intensive aluminum smelters.

Even with steady demand inside the EU, German suppliers have found themselves outflanked by Asian rivals with cheaper operating costs.

Greece loses share, Italy climbs

Greece's exports shrank sharply. Trade value till May dropped from USD 927 million in H1 2024 to USD 650 million in H1 2025, while volume fell from 166,185 tonnes to 141,045 tonnes. Outdated plants, lack of investment in modernisation and volatility in raw material supplies have all played a part. Competition from Italy has made matters worse.

Italy, in contrast, has had a breakthrough. By May 2025, it had shipped 118,186 tonnes worth USD 518 million, a performance strong enough to place it among the top five exporters - a spot it didn't hold a year earlier. Fresh investments in processing capacity, upgraded facilities and trade agreements giving it better access to fast-growing European and Asian markets have underpinned this rise.

France and South Korea drop out

Both France and South Korea were in the top five in H1 2024 but failed to keep their positions this year. France exported USD 927 million worth of aluminum sheets (166,185 tonnes) in 2024, while South Korea shipped USD 1.2 billion (368,300 tonnes).

By 2025, they were pushed out. Anti-dumping duties and tariffs imposed by the US and EU cut into sales. France's industry was further weakened by soaring energy prices, while South Korea faced high production costs and logistical bottlenecks that made its exports less competitive.

Why aluminum sheets matter

The industrial uses explain why these shifts are closely watched. Aluminum plates, sheets and strips are prized for being strong, lightweight and resistant to corrosion. In cars and aircraft, they cut weight without sacrificing safety. In construction, they form the skin of buildings, roofs, facades and window frames.

Packaging depends on aluminum's barrier properties to keep food and drinks fresh, while electronics manufacturers use it in heat sinks, casings and conductors. Shipbuilders and offshore operators rely on its corrosion resistance. From storage tanks to decorative finishes, aluminum's versatility means that global trade shifts ripple across entire industries.

An expanding global market

All these shifts are unfolding in an expanding global market. The aluminum alloy plate, sheet and strip sector, defined as material thicker than 0.2 mm, was worth USD 91.3 billion in 2024 with consumption of 26 million tonnes. By 2035, consumption is projected to reach 30 million tonnes at a CAGR of 1.5 per cent, while the market value should climb to USD 118.2 billion, growing at 2.4 per cent annually as per sources.

Halfway through 2025, China remains dominant but is steering toward higher-value exports under tighter policy rules. The US, Germany, France and South Korea are struggling with high costs and trade barriers, while Italy has muscled into the top five with new capacity and better market access.

With demand forecast to grow steadily through 2035, the exporters that will thrive are those that keep costs down, adapt technology quickly, and align with industries looking for lighter, more sustainable aluminum products.