China's natural gas market is entering the fourth quarter with firmer consumption fundamentals. October demand is projected to stay elevated amid heating preparation, resilient transport fuel use, and steady industrial recovery, while import dynamics show a gradual shift toward pipeline gas.
- Steady demand recovery: Industrial and residential consumption are firming as northern heating needs pick up and factory activity improves. Gas-fired power plants are maintaining high operating rates, offsetting lower hydropower output.
- Domestic output expansion: New upstream projects and efficiency gains in major producing regions supporting output stability in the near term.
- Import structure shift: Pipeline inflows are strengthening, while LNG arrivals have eased amid softer international prices and flexible contract execution.
- Pricing and inventory trends: Terminal inventories remain high into Q4, while eased import costs have narrowed the LNG-pipeline price gap, supporting competitiveness in transport and commercial sectors.
Market Outlook: 12-month Rolling Forecast
- Production growth is expected to remain steady, with total domestic output reaching 250 bcm in 2025, led by coalbed methane and shale gas expansion.
- Demand diversification across seven sectors: residential, heating, commercial, transport, industrial, power generation, and chemicals - with transport and power remaining the key growth drivers.
- Import patterns are rebalancing as pipeline gas gains share, while LNG imports ease in the near term and are projected to recover from 2026 as global supply expands and spot market liquidity improves.
- Inventory stability as LNG terminals and underground storage maintain high utilization ahead of winter, improving overall supply security.
In addition, the report analyses gas consumption across related manufacturing and logistics sectors - including steel, glass, paper, construction, and photovoltaics - while incorporating exclusive heavy-duty truck mileage data to capture the fastest-growing and most data-scarce segment of natural gas use. What makes the report different from conventional supply-demand studies is that it provides a more comprehensive view of underlying demand drivers.
GL Consulting expects China's natural gas market to enter 2026 with more balanced fundamentals - characterized by diversified supply sources, improved import flexibility, and sustained growth in cleaner fuel demand.
The above content is the major conclusions and highlights extracted from China Natural Gas Market Monthly Report (September 2025 edition) produced by GL Consulting.
This monthly report provides a 12-month rolling forecast for China's natural gas market, with full-chain data coverage-from production and imports to storage and demand-plus early indicators for price shifts and sector-specific breakdowns.
What's inside this monthly report:
- Macro context and policy watch impacting gas demand and pricing
- Domestic production outlook by source (conventional, CBM, shale gas, coal-to-gas)
- Demand by sector (residential/heating, commercial, transport, industrial, power, chemicals) with monthly trackers
- Import dynamics: pipeline vs LNG (term contract vs spot), inventory flows, and costs
Tailored for traders, suppliers, procurement teams, financial institutions, risk managers, and policy research institutes, the report delivers actionable insights-helping users anticipate market inflection points.
Click here for specific data and market insights from the full report or contact glconsulting@mysteel.com
