A Glance of China Oil Market 20251117

On the demand end, the gasoline consumption will receive limited support with on-going squeeze from electric vehicles and traditional seasonal low. For gasoil, the demand is expected to stay flat with consumption weakening in northern China with temperature going down, and demand staying resilient in the southern part thanks to active logistics and other rigid demand.

A Glance of China Oil Market 20251117

Weekly News

China gasoil demand to fall 3% YoY in Nov

China's gasoil market is likely to see slightly reduced supply and demand through November, while a structural supply shortage is unlikely in the near term, according to OilChem. In November, China's daily gasoil consumption is estimated to drop 2.69% month-on-month (MoM) and 3.39% year-on-year (YoY) at around 590,000 tonnes/day, indicating modest demand through the month despite a mild contraction. Specially, the demand from agriculture, animal husbandry, and fisheries will likely begin to decline starting the middle of the month. Outdoor projects will gradually slow after temperatures fall below zero in some regions. Read Full Story

China refineries CDU CUR to fall 1.55pp in Nov

According to OilChem's survey, China's domestic refineries are expected to show a monthly average CDU capacity utilization rate (CUR) of 71.92% through November, down 1.55 percentage points from the previous month, which is primarily contributed by the state-owned refineries. Accordingly, the refined oil production will likely contract amidst weakening demand, with a monthly fall of 2.96%, 0.2%, and 3.33% respectively for gasoline, gasoil, and kerosene. In detail, the gasoline demand is in the traditional seasonal low with reduced travel distance. Gasoil demand is also expected to decrease, as the autumn harvest season concludes and transportation and infrastructure activities enter their off-peak period. Read Full Story

Oct refined oil exports estimated to drop on tightened export quotas

The October exports of refined oil in China are estimated to drop, stemming from the continual control on export quotas for some export enterprises. The exports of refined oil are estimated to total 3.36 million tonnes in October, down by 90,000 tonnes or 2.61% month-on-month, according to data from the General Administration of Customs of PRC (GACC) and data predicted by OilChem. Specifically, the October exports of gasoline will be up 15.79% month-on-month to 660,000 tonnes, but those of diesel and jet fuel will fall by 16.67% and 3.85%, respectively to 450,000 tonnes and 2.25 million tonnes. Read Full Story