In November, China's nickel sulfate market saw eased tightness in spot supply and weaker cost expectations, leading to a broad softening and downward price trend. According to Mysteel, from November 3 to 13, the battery-grade nickel sulfate price dropped from Yuan 28,400/t to Yuan 28,150/t. The quoted price range also shifted slightly lower to Yuan 28,330-28,600/t, while actual transaction prices were mostly concentrated between Yuan 27,800–28,000/t.
Amid the overall downward pressure on nickel sulfate prices, the discount coefficient also declined, which reflected insufficient market willingness to conclude deals. Sellers made concessions to facilitate shipments, while buyers, with ample stockpiles, exhibited stronger bargaining power.
Currently, certain sales channels for nickel sulfate still maintain pricing advantages, with external sellers quoting relatively higher, while integrated enterprises offer resources at lower prices. However, as market expectations for MHP transactions in the first quarter of 2026 gradually converge, the price divergence in the nickel sulfate market is expected to narrow, and the gap between quoted and actual transaction prices will also shrink.
Source: Mysteel
Furthermore, the weakness in SHFE nickel prices further dragged down nickel sulfate prices. In November, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract opened at Yuan 120,390/t at the beginning of the month and experienced continued declines, closing at Yuan 118,300/t by the 12th. The falling nickel price undermined the pricing benchmark for nickel sulfate.
Stagnant shipments on the demand side also became a key issue. Although a supply-demand gap for nickel sulfate from ternary precursor makers persisted, procurement was limited in early November as these manufacturers had built inventories in late October. By mid-November, purchasing sentiment had noticeably cooled.
The decline in nickel sulfate prices reduced cost support for the nickel metal content in ternary precursors, with the quoted discount gradually dropping from 95% to 91%. Some companies, facing price pressure from downstream buyers, even transacted at 90% of the original price. Meanwhile, cobalt sulfate prices remained elevated, with most suppliers temporarily suspending offers and raw material procurement turning cautious. Quotations for the cobalt metal content in ternary precursors generally maintained flat levels without discounts. Due to the high cobalt content in 5-series ternary precursors and continuously rising costs, manufacturers reported demand was gradually shifting towards medium- and high-nickel products in November, which accelerated the trend towards higher nickel content in ternary precursors.
On the supply side, tight raw material supply provided crucial support and prevented a steeper decline in nickel sulfate prices. Persistently high prices for MHP and nickel matte, coupled with delays in new MHP project commissioning, limited supply flexibility for nickel sulfate production. With low inventory levels at Chinese nickel salt plants and minimal spot market availability, compounded by raw material cost pressures, producers demonstrated a strong willingness to support prices. Additionally, while Indonesia's new tax and mandatory forex settlement policies did not directly impact the nickel sulfate market, they increased nickel ore export costs. Imported resources, constrained by hazardous chemical permits and tariffs, were unable to quickly alleviate the tight domestic spot supply and created a situation of constrained supply and difficult shipments.
Currently, nickel consumption in the stainless steel and battery sectors has peaked, and expanding downstream losses have further pushed down upstream prices. Meanwhile, inventories of both electrolytic nickel and electro-deposited nickel are increasing both domestically and internationally, suggesting nickel prices are expected to trend weaker. However, MHP maintained stronger bargaining power due to its single raw material source, resulting in a slight increase in its spot coefficient. Leading companies in Indonesia are holding low inventory levels and have raised their long-term contract offers for Q1 2026, a move subsequently followed by traders in the market. Looking ahead, nickel sulfate producers are expected to face limited cost pressure in December. Transactions are anticipated to be settled mainly at a 90% coefficient, which should help prevent a further sharp decline in nickel sulfate prices.
Written by Cora Ji, jiruyan@mysteel.com
