The 15th Five-Year Plan outlines four key transitions that that reorient development priorities away from speed- and quantity-based metrics toward quality, security, and long-term institutional capacity.
Source: Compiled by GL Consulting
1 | Growth engine: from factor-driven expansion to high-tech industrialization
Building on the 14th FYP's shift toward high-quality, innovation-driven growth, the 15th FYP is set to further strengthen high-tech and advanced manufacturing as a core pillar of future development.
Traditional sectors are expected less to expand capacity and more to upgrade - moving up the value chain through digitalization, automation, and green transformation. Investment and policy guidance increasingly prioritize original innovation, critical materials, and frontier technologies, gradually reshaping what counts as a "strategic industry".
2 | Performance metrics: from GDP targets to quality- and security-based KPIs
GDP growth remains an important benchmark, but it is no longer the sole formal planning anchor. Recent Five-Year Plans have reduced the emphasis on fixed multi-year GDP targets and expanded the indicator set to cover high-quality development - including innovation capacity, environmental outcomes, people's livelihood, and risk and security metrics.
Under the 15th FYP, performance evaluation is expected to more systematically incorporate technology self-reliance, supply-chain security, and elements of data governance, gradually mainstreaming these dimensions of "economic security" into policy design and project screening across regions and sectors.
3 | Reform sequencing: institutional upgrade before growth scaling
Rather than pursuing short-term stimulus, the 15th FYP is expected to follow a more clearly phased reform logic. The current cycle is intended to lay key institutional groundwork for high-quality development - in areas such as market rules, data and digital governance, fiscal and financial frameworks, and risk-management mechanisms - with subsequent Five-Year Plans building on and scaling these arrangements.
By the end of this Plan period, the goal is to have broadly in place the core institutional framework needed for high-quality growth, while the 2035 horizon targets the basic modernization of economic structure and governance capacity. This sequencing signals a shift in emphasis from project-led stimulus toward more institution-led development.
4 | Strategic stance: from integration to global rule-shaping
China is seeking to move from primarily integrating into existing global standards toward playing a more active role as a co-designer of rules - particularly in digital technology, green trade, and climate policy. The agenda of "institutional opening-up" now emphasizes both alignment with high-standard international economic and trade rules and greater participation in rule-making.
Emerging initiatives on mutual recognition of product carbon-footprint and green-certificate standards with the EU, together with China's technical engagement around the EU's CBAM, are laying the groundwork for deeper outbound regulatory and rule engagement.
The full report dives deeper into:
- Reform timeline across the 15th, 16th, and 17th FYP cycles
- Expanded KPI system with tech, data, and supply chain indicators
- Pilot models for security-based performance evaluation
- Sector-specific implications of China's emerging rule-setting strategy
The above content is the major conclusions and highlights extracted from China (Energy Transition) Policy Perspective produced by GL Consulting. Click the hyperlinks for the full text or email glconsulting@mysteel.com.
