SHFE non-ferrous metal futures rise on week

As of 3 p.m. on Friday, the SHFE's most-traded January 2026 nickel contract had risen by 2.7% from a week earlier, closing the daytime session at Yuan 117,080/tonne ($16,542/t). Similarly, the most-traded January 2026 copper and aluminum contracts also strengthened, gaining 2.1% and 1.3% on week to end at Yuan 87,430/t and Yuan 21,610/t, respectively.

The on-week increases in futures for the three metals were supported by both a better macroeconomic outlook and forecasts of tighter supplies of the metals globally, market analysts pointed out.

On the macro front, the probability of a 25-basis-point U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December had increased to 84.7% as of November 28, according to the CME FedWatch tool, up 13.7 percentage points from a week earlier. The higher likelihood of a rate cut reduced the appeal of interest-bearing assets and encouraged many investors to shift toward the commodities market, providing upward momentum for the SHFE's non-ferrous futures offerings, market analysts explained.

On the supply side, market concerns over potential shortages of nickel and copper worldwide further buoyed sentiment among domestic market players. In Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, some nickel smelters will likely suspend operations if ore supply tightens further, the Forum Industri Nikel Indonesia (FINI), an association representing Indonesian nickel smelters, had warned on November 22.

For copper, news reports on November 26 said that Chile's state-owned copper producer, Codelco, planned a significant increase in its 2026 annual premium for refined copper for Chinese customers due to possible supply constraints. The move has reportedly prompted some Chinese buyers to consider shifting to spot purchases.

These reports reinforced concerns over constrained nickel and copper availability in both the global and domestic markets, pushing SHFE futures prices for the two metals higher this week.

Meanwhile, the SHFE's warehouse stocks showed mixed trends this week. As of November 28, copper and aluminum inventories in the SHFE-bonded and standard warehouses had fallen by 11.5% and 6.8% on week to 97,930 tonnes and 115,277 tonnes, respectively. In contrast, nickel stocks had climbed by 2.5% from a week earlier to 40,782 tonnes.

Written by Iris Pang, pangjunyu@mysteel.com

Edited by Russ McCulloch, russ.mcculloch@mysteel.com