DAILY: Chinese spot alumina continues downtrend despite futures rally

Alumina futures gained renewed upward momentum yesterday. The most-traded January 2026 alumina contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 0.95% during Wednesday's daytime session and gained a further 0.9% in nighttime trading, closing at Yuan 2,573/t as of 1 a.m. Thursday.

Despite that, the national average spot price assessed by Mysteel for metallurgical-grade alumina with purity above 98.6% slipped by another Yuan 6/tonne ($0.9/t) from Tuesday to sit at Yuan 2,764/t including the 13% VAT on Wednesday, marking nearly two consecutive weeks of declines.

By region, Mysteel's price assessments showed that spot prices for the same grade of alumina in the Guangxi autonomous region fell by Yuan 10/t on day to Yuan 2,815/t yesterday, while those in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, and Guizhou provinces all dipped by Yuan 5/t from the previous day to range between Yuan 2,665/t and Yuan 2,845/t.

The further price drop in the spot market reflected a persistent imbalance between alumina supply and demand. Buying demand for this key raw material used to produce primary aluminum remained subdued on Wednesday, mainly because most downstream users already hoarded high stocks of this feed, market watchers noted.

Most primary aluminum smelters in China have completed their winter restocking and secured ample raw material inventories. Only a small number of smelters replenished supplies at lower prices. In consequence, trading activity in the domestic market was thin on December 17, with Mysteel hearing of no concluded transactions.

In the overseas market, a 30,000-tonne cargo of alumina was reportedly traded at either $310/t FOB Eastern Australia or $313/t FOB Western Australia, depending on the buyer's preference, with shipment scheduled for March 2026.

Written by Iris Pang, pangjunyu@mysteel.com