As a key time for traditional curing and sausage-making, the Winter Solstice often drives a seasonal increase in pork consumption. However, the market this year has been characterized by a lack of significant activity during what is typically the peak season.
According to Mysteel survey, in the week before the Winter Solstice, slaughterhouse operating rates and volume increased due to the release of curing demand in southwestern regions and stockpiling activities in the north, leading to a short-term boost in terminal consumption.
However, temperatures in traditional major curing consumption regions like Hunan, Hubei, Guangdong, and Guangxi remained relatively high, preventing a concentrated start to household curing activities. Coupled with changing consumption habits, the overall demand for cured pork products has shown a weakening trend. Consequently, the festive effect of the Winter Solstice dissipated quickly, with pork sales slowing down and slaughter volume declining accordingly.
As of December 23, the average daily slaughter volume by slaughterhouses was 165,300 head, up 7.86% from the beginning of the month but down 2.61% from the peak around the Winter Solstice and also 1.04% lower year-on-year.
The price trend has largely mirrored the consumption performance. Pork prices showed a brief, temporary strengthening before the Winter Solstice, lasting only three days with gains falling short of expectations. After the Solstice, constrained by ample supply and weakening demand, pork prices shifted to a fluctuating and slightly downward trend. As of December 23, the national average pork price was Yuan 15.22/kg, a decrease of Yuan 0.13/kg (approximately 0.85%) from the high point during the pre-Winter Solstice stockpiling phase.
With the year-end approaching, how live hog and pork prices will evolve has become a focal point of market attention.
On the supply side, projections based on sow inventory data indicate sufficient live hog supply from the fourth quarter into the first quarter of next year, with no significant market shortages. As the pre-Chinese New Year (CNY) window for hog slaughter narrows, some farming enterprises, aiming to avoid post-holiday price declines, may choose to sell their hogs early in January 2026, potentially intensifying short-term supply pressure in the market. However, the currently sustained weak prices, keeping the industry near the break-even point, might also lead some farmers to hold back hogs in anticipation of higher prices, opting to sell closer to the Spring Festival.
On the demand side, the New Year holiday is expected to boost household and catering consumption, providing some support to prices. The core driving force will be the pre-CNY stockpiling activities starting 2-3 weeks before the holiday. Slaughterhouses will increase their operating rates to ensure supply, promoting a seasonal price increase.
Comprehensive analysis suggests that live hog and pork prices before the Spring Festival may follow a pattern of "first declining then rising, with overall limited fluctuation":
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks): Prices are likely to remain under pressure, experiencing continued fluctuations due to the typical post-Winter Solstice consumption dip combined with ample supply. A brief, modest rebound may occur around the New Year holiday due to the festive effect, but its strength is expected to be limited.
Medium-term (2-3 weeks before Spring Festival): As comprehensive CNY stockpiling commences and demand gradually picks up, prices are expected to experience a rebound. However, due to the overall ample supply of live hogs, the rebound is anticipated to be weaker than in previous years during the same period, with average prices unlikely to surpass previous highs.
Overall, while CNY holiday demand provides crucial support, the fundamental situation of strong supply versus weaker demand has not fundamentally changed. The momentum and room for price increases remain constrained.
Written by Stacy Chen, chenyijuan@mysteel.com
