Interpretation of China's reintroduction of export licensing for selected steel products and its market implications

On December 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce (MoC) and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued Announcement No. 79, adjusting the Catalogue of Goods Subject to Export License Administration (2025) by placing certain steel products under export license administration. This move marks a new phase in China's steel export management, effectively reintroducing a licensing framework sixteen years after its abolition on January 1, 2009.

The policy adjustment takes place against the backdrop of significant transformation pressure facing China's steel industry. From January to November 2025, China's steel exports totaled 107.7 million tonnes, a 6.7% year-on-year increase - with full-year exports projected to reach approximately 115 million tonnes, surpassing the historical peak of 112