WEEKLY: China's alumina output edges down, stocks continue to climb

During the December 26-January 1 week, the 44 Chinese alumina refiners under Mysteel's regular tracking produced 1.83 million tonnes of metallurgical-grade alumina, down marginally by 0.5% from the previous week, according to Mysteel's weekly survey.

The modest decline in output was largely the result of short-term maintenance stoppages at two refiners in Southwest China's Guizhou province, the survey found. One refiner began a week's maintenance on a calcinator from last Tuesday, while another launched routine maintenance early last week that is expected to last a fortnight.

However, the slight production drop did little to ease the oversupply situation in the spot alumina market, as downstream consumption showed no improvement, market watchers noted. Alumina demand from primary aluminium smelters remained flat last week, with the 89 smelters that Mysteel tracks consuming a total of 1.65 million tonnes of alumina during the week, ticking up by a tiny 0.006% from the prior week.

Alumina inventories climbed higher during the same week. As of January 1, total stocks across China's ten major ports, 44 producers, 89 smelters, and rail yards or in transit – all regularly monitored by Mysteel – had reached 5.24 million tonnes, up 1.4% on week and 41.6% on year, Mysteel's tracking data showed. This represented a fresh peak since Mysteel began the survey in January 2022.

The primary driver for the mounting stocks was an increase in portside inventories, fuelled by arrivals of alumina at a few northern ports. By January 1, inventories at the ten major ports regularly tracked by Mysteel had jumped by 12.9% on week to 158,000 tonnes, Mysteel's survey showed. Qingdao port in East China's Shandong province recorded the sharpest increase, with stocks surging 200% from a week earlier, while Panjin port in Northeast China's Liaoning province saw a 50% on-week rise. 

During the final week of 2025, the decline in Chinese spot alumina prices moderated but the market remained weak, with trading sparse ahead the New Year's Day holiday over January 1-3. The national average spot price assessed by Mysteel for smelter-grade alumina with a purity above 98.6% was Yuan 2,698/tonne ($386/t) on December 31, down by 0.9% on week but easing from the previous week's 1.4% on-week decrease.

Written by Iris Pang, pangjunyu@mysteel.com