During the Chinese New Year holiday, the SHFE nickel market was closed, and both buyers and sellers in China's nickel ore market also gradually took leave, bringing trading activity to a near standstill. In Indonesia, the domestic nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) for the second half of February was adjusted slightly downward in line with LME nickel prices, though premiums remained firm. The main production areas in the Philippines were still in the rainy season, and the overall supply remained at a low level. On February 18, a landslide occurred in the tail mining area of the IMIP park in Indonesia. Operations in the affected area were suspended, but it has not yet significantly impacted the overall supply.
Regarding prices, the Chinese nickel ore market had gradually entered holiday mode before the break, with mills showing low purchasing interest and few transactions concluded. As of February 13, CIF prices stood at US $52/wmt for Ni:1.3% ore, US $65-$67/wmt for Ni:1.5% ore, and US $87/wmt for Ni:1.8% ore. During the holiday week, CIF prices for mainstream nickel ore grades remained stable.
Source: Mysteel
In Indonesia, the second-period HPM benchmark price took effect from February 15. According to Mysteel's calculation, based on HMA (Period II) at $17,670.31/tonne, benchmark prices for major nickel ore grades experienced slight downward adjustments of approximately US $0.2-$0.3/wmt. The benchmark price for Ni:1.5% ore was set at US $27.57/wmt (down $0.16), Ni:1.6% ore at US $31.24/wmt (down $0.18), and Ni:1.8% ore at US $39.28/wmt (down $0.23). Domestic premiums remained stable throughout the month with no adjustments observed.
Source: Mysteel
In the Philippines, the main production area of Surigao was in the rainy season, with shipments staying at low levels. Although the northern Zambales and southern Tawi-Tawi regions continued some shipments, the Chinese market has entered the holiday period, and there were no new tenders or transactions for the time being.
Regarding inventories, Mysteel data show that as of February 12, total nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports stood at 10.706 million wet tonnes. By source, Philippine nickel ore accounted for 10.186 million wet tonnes, while ore from other countries totaled 520,000 wet tonnes. By grade, low-grade high-iron ore amounted to 4.959 million wet tonnes, and medium-to-high-grade ore totaled 5.747 million wet tonnes. During the holiday period, the arrival of goods at ports decreased. The downstream consumption was mainly based on the inventory within factories, while the inventory at ports remained stable.
On February 18, a landslide occurred in the tailings area operated by PT QMB New Energy Materials within the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), resulting in one worker fatality and several pieces of heavy equipment being buried. Operations in the affected area have been suspended following the incident, while local authorities conduct investigations. The IMIP park, located on Sulawesi Island, is Indonesia's largest nickel processing hub, with QMB being a nickel-cobalt hydrometallurgical project led by Chinese enterprise GEM. Currently, the incident has not significantly impacted overall park operations or nickel ore supply.
According to Mysteel, Chinese nickel ore traders and downstream plants are expected to gradually resume work in late February, with market activity progressively recovering. On the supply side, Indonesia has entered Ramadan (February 19-March 20), during which government approval efficiency is expected to slow. Both new RKAB quota approvals and company revision applications will face delays. After the first-quarter grace period expires, some companies may face temporary supply shortages. In the Philippines, the Surigao rainy season is expected to continue until the end of March, with no significant near-term supply increase anticipated.
Market participants are advised to monitor the progress of Indonesia's RKAB approvals and actual operations during Ramadan, new tender offers from Philippine mines, and purchasing intentions from Chinese NPI producers after they resume operations. Considering downstream NPI smelters remain in a loss-making position with limited acceptance of high prices, nickel ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level after the Chinese New Year holiday.
Written by Cora Ji, jiruyan@mysteel.com
