Analyzing post-holiday corn strength and its narrowing price spreads with key grains

As of February 27, the national average corn price was Yuan 2,355/tonne, up Yuan 20/tonne month-on-month (compared to Yuan 2,335/tonne on January 27, 2026).

By region, corn prices in Northeast China trended firmly, with spot quotations rising Yuan 10-30/tonne from pre-holiday levels. The futures market performed firmly both before and after the Chinese New Year, providing some support to the physical market. Additionally, procurement prices at some deep processing enterprises in the Northeast were higher after the holiday compared to before. In North China, corn prices first rose then stabilized. Most grassroots elevators started purchasing from February 24, but farmer sales have not yet fully recovered. Downstream deep processing enterprises gradually resumed corn procurement from February 24. After consumption during the holiday, enterprises had replenishment needs, keeping prices generally firm. In major consumption markets, corn prices were stable with some increases. Prices were stable during the holiday, with trading activity in southern consumption markets largely stagnant. Downstream feed mills mainly consumed pre-holiday inventories. Post-holiday prices firmed, with price increases in producing areas driving up port quotations in destination markets.

Corn-Wheat Price Spread Comparison

As of February 27, the national average corn price was Yuan 2,355 /tonne, and the average wheat price was Yuan 2,529/tonne, with Yuan 174/tonne price spread between them.

Recent wheat market movements have unfolded in three stages: a stable opening, a moderate firming, and range-bound fluctuations. Post-holiday recovery period: Market trading was light, processing enterprise restarts were slow, terminal consumption was weak, farmers had not yet begun concentrated selling, circulation was relatively low, the market was generally stable, and wait-and-see sentiment was strong. Resumption and replenishment period: Flour mills fully resumed operations, releasing raw material replenishment demand.Grassroots grain stocks decreased, and high-quality wheat faced a structural tightness, supporting a moderate price firming. Auction wheat resource releases were in line, capping upside potential. Off-season fluctuation period: Terminal flour consumption entered a slack season, feed demand was weak, providing insufficient support on the demand side. Policy support and supply guarantees continued to exert force, creating a balanced market with both bullish and bearish factors. Overall, each stage was influenced by policies stabilizing the market, relatively weak supply and demand on both sides, and cautious sentiment.

Corn-Sorghum Price Spread Comparison

As of February 27, the corn price at Nantonneg Port was Yuan 2,460/tonne, and the imported sorghum price was Yuan 2,470 /tonne, with sorghum Yuan 10/tonne higher than corn.

The imported sorghum market trended stably. The operating rates of domestic feed mills and distilleries recovered slowly after the Chinese New Year, and the large-scale spring restocking cycle has not yet begun. Market procurement was mainly for rigid replenishment needs, with generally tepid acceptance of high-priced goods. Recent corn price fluctuations have weakened sorghum's feed substitution advantage, directly suppressing demand growth for imported sorghum. Imported sorghum cargoes continued to arrive at ports, ensuring ample subsequent market circulation. Therefore after domestic sorghum stocks bottomed out, imported sorghum will replenish total sorghum supply. These two factors jointly limiting the upside potential for imported sorghum prices. The imported sorghum market is expected to operate stably in the short term, with limited room for price adjustments.

Corn-Barley Price Spread Comparison

As of February 27, the price for second-grade new crop corn at Nantonneg Port was Yuan 2,460/tonne. The price for imported barley at Nantonneg Port was Yuan 2,200 /tonne, making new crop corn 260 Yuan/tonne more expensive than imported barley.

Recently, corn prices at Nantong Port have been firm, while imported barley prices at the port have remained largely stable. Market demand recovery has been slow. In the imported barley market, downstream players are gradually resuming operations, with a slight release of rigid demand. However, import costs are pressuring prices, limiting the upside potential for quotations, and making a trend-based market unlikely. As feed mills initiate concentrated spring restocking, demand is expected to increase. With the slowdown in arrival pace, inventories are gradually being drawn down. In the short term, the imported barley market shows a significant characteristic of active destocking. Feed barley is bottoming out, while malting barley awaits a demand recovery. Attention should be paid to post-holiday downstream restocking sentiment, port arrivals, and price adjustments of corn and related products.

Written by Stacy Chen, chenyijuan@mysteel.com