MYSTEEL: Why China's imported iron ore prices don't always fall when port stocks rise

To date, China's imported iron ore port inventories have remained above 130 million tonnes for nearly three years. Over the same period, benchmark seaborne iron ore prices have retreated markedly, with highs sliding from around $143/dmt in early 2024 to roughly $100/ dmt at present, indicating a clear downward shift in the average price level.

The persistent buildup in inventories largely reflects the structural oversupply of seaborne iron ore following new mine capacity coming onstream, combined with gradually weakening domestic crude steel demand in China. However, Mysteel's tracking of market developments in recent years suggests that the relationship between port stock accumulation and iron ore