China's tin prices decreased this week, with the average closing price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) tin main contract from March 9 to 12 declining by 6.03% to Yuan 391,745/tonne week on week. Meanwhile, the London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month tin contract closing prices averaged at $49,788/tonne during the same period, down by 4.22% week on week. Regarding spot prices, China's 1# tin ingot average spot price from March 9 to March 12 stood at Yuan 390,625/tonne, a 5.93% decrease week on week, according to Mysteel.
On March 13, spot premiums for Yunxi, other Yun and small-branded tin ingots all remained unchanged week on week, at Yuan 2,000/tonne, Yuan 1,200/tonne, and Yuan 800/tonne, respectively. After the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, spot supply was ample, leading to lower premiums for branded tin ingot. However, as tin prices fell, spot consumption picked up, preventing further declines in spot premiums this week.
Tin prices fell this week due to both macroeconomic and fundamental factors. On the macro side, geopolitical tensions fueled inflation concerns, strengthening the U.S. dollar index and putting pressure on tin prices. Fundamentally, China's tin ore and concentrate imports through the Menglian port exceeded 2,600 tonnes in March as of March 11, according to Mysteel's survey. Meanwhile, Indonesian tin trades in March reached 1,360 tonnes as of March 12, an increase of 565 tonnes from the same period in February. Additionally, China's tin ingot import profit was Yuan 1,919/tonne as of March 11, keeping the import window open. With the steady recovery of Myanmar's tin ore supply and Indonesia's tin exports, as well as the opening China's import window, expectations for improved tin supply in China have strengthened. On the demand side, when tin prices fell early this week, downstream companies actively purchased to replenish raw material inventories, leading to strong market transactions. However, as prices consolidated, daily transaction volumes gradually declined. Meanwhile, downstream companies reported that end-users maintained rigid demand procurement, becoming cautious after prices stabilized.
Overall, tin prices declined this week due to a stronger U.S. dollar, expectations of improved tin supply, and limited demand growth. Looking ahead, tin prices are expected to remain range-bound in the short term. On one hand, macroeconomic factors and supply improvement expectations will continue to exert downward pressure. On the other hand, as the industry fully resume operations, downstream restocking will remain strong when prices dip. Therefore, short-term price movements are likely limited, with tin prices consolidating around current levels.
Written by Zhaorui Cui, cuizhaorui@mysteel.com
Edited by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
