According to Mysteel's weekly survey on 27 refined copper rod, 31 secondary copper rod, 12 copper plate/strip, 31 copper tube, and 30 copper bar producers nationwide, with coverage of 48%, 38%, 32%, 72%, and 80% of total capacity, respectively, China's copper semis output generally increased last week, except for secondary copper rod output which saw a slight decline, primarily due to raw material issues. Surveyed markets include Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Tianjin, and other major markets in China.
Data Source: Mysteel
Last week's output of refined copper rod, copper plate/strip, copper tube, and copper bar at sample enterprises increased by 5,700 tonnes, 200 tonnes, 1,500 tonnes, and 320 tonnes week on week, reaching 118,700 tonnes, 15,600 tonnes, 31,700 tonnes, and 20,030 tonnes.
Most surveyed refined copper rod producers, red copper plate/strip manufacturers, and copper bar enterprises held a relatively large volume of pending delivery orders, supporting high production. Some rod producers in North China even operated at nearly full capacity, market participants noted. Meanwhile, supported by robust demand from the air conditioning sector, copper tube output also increased last week. Consequently, consumption of refined copper grew last week, leading to further inventory declines and improvement in the fundamentals of China's copper market.
In contrast, secondary copper rod output at surveyed manufacturers declined last week, falling by 200 tonnes week on week to 14,000 tonnes, dampened by raw material issues. The raw material copper scrap industry has been facing tax policy adjustments known as reverse invoicing. China's State Taxation Administration has announced that qualified resource recycling enterprises buying scrap products from individual sellers can issue invoices to sellers since April 29, 2024, aiming to standardize industry practices and encourage compliant operations among recycling enterprises. However, the policy implementation has been gradual and divergent in different markets, causing uncertainty in copper scrap processors' raw material procurement. Mysteel's latest survey on 21 copper scrap processors in Hubei, Jiangxi, Hunan, Anhui, Sichuan and Henan, published on March 30, indicated that policy uncertainty has grown recently, disrupting production and leading about 38% of surveyed producers to schedule production cuts in April.
Looking ahead, copper semis output in China is expected to generally grow, supported by persistent end-user consumption growth, though uncertainty in copper scrap raw materials warrant close attention. Consequently, downstream consumption for raw material refined copper is expected to increase this week, providing support for copper prices. This week, refined copper prices are expected to trade between Yuan 93,000/tonne and Yuan 97,500/tonne in China, according to Mysteel's assessment.
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Written by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
