China's domestic corn prices in March 2026 rose first then softened, with sharp regional divergences. The prices changed along with supply turning from tight to ample and demand showing structural splits, and the bearish policy news triggered a pullback by month-end.
On the supply side, during the first half of March, factors such as holiday effects and rain and snow limited farmers' grain sales and trader shipments, resulting in insufficient effective supply, a key support for price increases.
In the second half, as temperatures rose, corn with high moisture content faced the risk of quality deterioration, prompting farmers and traders to accelerate the shipment. At the same time, with prices having climbed to relatively high levels, traders seized the opportunity to sell and free up capital, gradually pushing up market supply and weakening upward price momentum. Additionally, remaining on-farm grain inventories in North and Northeast China provided additional supply in the second half of the month.
Demand showed structural differentiation, offering uneven support to prices. In the deep-processing sector, although corporate inventories increased, they remained below year-ago levels, sustaining replenishment demand. Enterprises raised purchase prices throughout the month, lending strong support to corn prices.
In the feed sector, high corn prices and increased wheat substitution kept feed mills' demand for corn relatively subdued. Most feed mills adopted a need-based purchasing approach and maintained reasonable inventory levels, exerting no significant upward pressure on prices.
Overall, the structural support from demand was limited and insufficient to drive sustained price increases.
Futures market fluctuations directly impacted the spot market. In the first half, rising futures prices boosted spot market sentiment, pushing corn prices higher. In the second half, weakening futures prices, combined with bearish policy news, further pressured spot prices.
On the policy front, news of increased wheat auctions and rumors of expired storage rice, rice that has exceeded its normal storage life as stipulated by national regulations, auctions in the second half raised expectations of greater supply, fostering cautious market sentiment and serving as the primary trigger for the price pullback by month-end.
Looking ahead to April, grassroots farmers and small-scale traders are expected to sell high-moisture corn in batches to lock in profits and avoid quality deterioration and price losses from delayed sales. Traders will keep inventory at manageable levels, planning to replenish moderately once prices correct to a reasonable range to secure high-quality supplies. However, they should closely monitor futures market movements and policy developments, adjusting sales timing accordingly to avoid a price collapse from concentrated selling.
Feed mills will maintain stable inventory levels and purchase as needed, making full use of wheat's substitution advantage to control corn procurement costs. In late April, as prices stabilize, they are likely to replenish modestly to meet demand ahead of the Labor Day holiday. Deep-processing enterprises will conduct rigid restocking in batches based on their inventory levels and production needs, avoiding aggressive price-chasing and keeping procurement costs under control.
In summary, domestic corn prices in April are expected to continue their downward trend, gradually stabilizing as prices fall to levels that farmers and traders find minimally acceptable. The market is likely to follow a "weaker first, then stable" pattern.
Written by Stacy Chen, chenyijuan@mysteel.com
Edited by Aggie Hu, huchenying@mysteel.com
