Pig prices likely to stall amid reducing supply and demand in Jun-Jul

China' s pork market showed contractions in both supply and demand in May, with limited momentum for price recovery. Yet, the pressure on the breeding side eased. Most enterprises chose to reduce marketing volumes to support prices, while the operating rates of slaughtering enterprises declined. As a result, the prices moved up slightly. The trend of contraction in supply and demand is expected to continue through June to July, with pork prices unlikely to see significant adjustments.

On the supply side, the pressure on hog marketing from June to July is expected to ease slightly month-on-month, but supply volumes remain at relatively high levels.

Based on normal production rotation cycles, combined with earlier piglet external sales and self-fattening by breeding enterprises, the scheduled June marketing volume of sampled enterprises will decrease by 1.67% compared to actual marketing volumes in May. However, with fewer actual marketing days in June, the daily average supply remains high still.

Looking ahead to July, influenced by the decline in the sow herd size in September 2025, the volume of marketing hogs will continue to decrease theoretically. However, supported by year-end production targets at large-scale farms and low feed costs in January 2026, piglet raising enthusiasm was high, leading to an increase in piglet numbers that partially offsets the decline. Therefore, while supply pressure in July is slightly lower than in June, the supply may remain ample.

From a demand perspective, pork consumption enters a traditional off-season in June. Therefore, slaughtering enterprises have low willingness to butcher hogs and freeze pork, mostly focusing on fresh sales, which limits increases in slaughter volumes. According to data from Mysteel's survey, as of June 3, the average daily slaughter volume of 81 sampled slaughtering enterprises was 136,517 head, down 4.35% from the same period last month.

On the other hand, with rising temperatures, residents' dietary preferences are shifting. There is a stronger preference for light diet, while the willingness to consume pork, especially fatty meat and braised dishes, declines. Meanwhile, consumption of substitutes such as fruits, vegetables, and aquatic products increases.

Additionally, some catering and processing channels had already stocked up from April to early May, and since late May, downstream procurement has significantly decreased, further weakening the support from the demand side for prices.

Overall, the pressure on hog slaughtering from June to July will ease slightly month-on-month, but supply volumes will remain relatively high. On the demand side, the off-season consumption will present more pronounced bearish influences. Under these circumstances, pork prices lack a basis for significant increases, but there is some bottom support due to reduced marketing volumes and price support from the production side.

Pork prices from June to July are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the main trading range expected to be between Yuan 12.50-13.50/kg.