After weeks of narrow fluctuations of just Yuan 20-30/tonne, China's corn starch prices broke out of their range and moved modestly higher. In North China, prices rose by Yuan 10-30/tonne, with mainstream transactions at Yuan 2,880-2,930/tonne. In Northeast China, some producers raised prices by Yuan 20/tonne, with mainstream prices at Yuan 2,700-2,750/tonne. The market is now watching whether this round of increases can sustain the breakout.
On the raw material end, the amount of corn available for sale from farmers is largely depleted, with the vast majority corn stocks transferred to traders. Traders have shifted their focus to wheat, leading to a continued decline in corn sales volume, which has established firm bottom support for spot prices. However, aged rice, imported corn, and sprouted wheat are collectively supplying feed mills, making it difficult for corn demand to achieve incremental breakthroughs.
Overall, the likelihood of a sustained rally or a significant decline in corn prices remains low. Prices are supported by traders' inventory costs and limited supply from farmers, while upside is constrained by sprouted wheat substitution, state reserve grain releases, and weak downstream demand. As a result, corn price trends are unlikely to show significant directional changes through June.
On the supply side, China's corn starch supply is expected to gradually fall when the traditional off-season kicks off. In the week ending June 10, 2026, China's corn starch production totaled 341,400 tonnes, up 8,000 tonnes from the previous week, with the weekly operating rate at 62.4%, a weekly rise of 1.46 percentage points. Over the past three months, operating rates have consistently stayed at or above 60%, remaining relatively high year-on-year.
Nevertheless, some companies have scheduled maintenance for late June, but the impact on overall operations is expected to be limited. However, as the traditional off-season begins, the number of plants undergoing maintenance may increase during July-August, though new production capacity is set to come online in July.
Meanwhile, inventory drawdown has been smooth. China's corn starch inventories totaled 1.23 million tonnes in the week ending June 12, a weekly decline of 4.36% and a year-on-year decline of 9.78%, according to Mysteel's data. Inventories have continued to fall in June, driven by robust activity in the starch sugar and papermaking sectors, which have boosted corn starch consumption. However, demand from the food-grade market has been relatively moderate.
In summary, the corn starch market currently sees the mixture of bulls and bears. On one side, strong industrial demand from downstream sectors such as starch sugar and papermaking offer support. In addition, imported tapioca starch prices continue to rise. The price spread between Vietnamese tapioca starch and domestic corn starch has now exceeded Yuan 1,300/tonne, prompting downstream industries such as papermaking to increase demand for corn starch.
But there are also bearish factors capping the price gains, including soft demand from the food-grade market, the upcoming traditional off-season, and cheaper wheat starch squeezing some demand from the food and industrial sectors. Furthermore, downstream buyers are mostly taking a wait-and-see attitude toward price increases, procuring only on a rigid demand basis, leading to insufficient demand release.
Overall, the market remains in a stalemate with multiple forces at play. Corn starch prices are likely to continue a narrow rangebound to strong bias in late June, but a sustained rally remains unlikely. The mainstream transaction price range in North China is expected to be between Yuan 2,900-2,950/tonne.
