China's prebaked anode prices halted its upward trend and turned lower in June 2026. On the fundamentals, new capacity additions and maintenance shutdowns occurred in parallel, with operating rates edging down. The aluminium production remained high, supported by steady domestic demand, though export volumes dropped significantly. In July, cost support is expected to re-emerge as procurement benchmark prices rise month-on-month, prompting a rapid bottoming-out and rebound.
Market Overview
China's prebaked anode market saw slightly weakening cost support, and anode market prices stopped rising and turned downward in June. According to Mysteel, the June 2026 purchasing benchmark price of prebaked anodes for a large aluminum smelter in Shandong fell by 21 Yuan/tonne compared to May, with the prices at Yuan 5,653/tonne by cash and the acceptance price at Yuan 5,668/tonne by acceptance.
After two consecutive months of price increases, the prebaked anode market experienced a decline again. However, as raw material prices fell simultaneously, the cost reduction outpaced the price drop, partially repairing industry losses. Production enterprises saw easing cost pressures and a slight improvement in operating margins.
Most prebaked anode producers maintained stable production and sales through June. Several new projects in Shandong with a combined capacity of 600,000 tonnes/year began ignition and baking. Maintenance and resumption ran in parallel in some regions, resulting in little change in overall operating rates.
Downstream aluminum smelters operated at high levels, new projects advanced steadily, and regional anode demand remained robust. Overall, the fundamentals of the prebaked anode market were stable.
Supply Side
In June, prebaked anode producers mostly operated smoothly. Enterprises in major production areas maintained steady operations. Most commercial producers in Shandong and Henan executed orders, with some continuing toll-processing contracts. Previously idled maintenance units have not yet resumed production. Integrated anode producers released output steadily, mostly for captive use. In Northwest China, maintenance-affected producers continued to compensate for lost output through external purchases and outsourced baking of green blocks.
Regarding new capacity, the assembly workshop of Xinjiang Chenfeng Carbon's Green Energy-Saving Integration Project officially commenced operation; the 88-chamber baking furnace in the baking workshop of Shandong Haiyun Energy Technology Co., Ltd. was successfully ignited; and Shandong Zhongke Ruihai New Energy Co., Ltd.'s 300,000 tonnes/year project was successfully put into operation.
Overall, with new capacity continuously coming online offsetting losses from maintenance, operating rates adjusted narrowly. Domestic prebaked anode supply remained generally stable. The national capacity utilization rate of prebaked anodes in June was 76.81%, down 0.09 percentage points month-on-month.
Demand Side
Domestic aluminum smelters maintained stable production in June 2026. Although profit margins in the aluminum sector narrowed slightly, the industry continued to operate at high rates. This month, all 264 pots of the 350,000-tonne Green Power Aluminum Project (Zhalu Phase II) in Zhaha Naoer, Tongliao City were put into operation, further increasing domestic operating capacity for aluminum. Smelters maintained normal procurement and offtake rhythms for prebaked anodes, keeping overall demand robust.
On the export front, data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China showed that China exported 172,500 tonnes of prebaked anodes in May 2026, down 11.04% year-on-year and 34.78% month-on-month. The total export volume of prebaked anodes dropped significantly, decreasing by 92,000 tonnes from the previous month. The provinces with notable declines were Shandong and Hebei, down 92,900 tonnes and 14,800 tonnes respectively. The destination countries with significant drops were Canada and Malaysia, down 46,500 tonnes and 40,100 tonnes respectively.
Shipments to Russia and Indonesia increased slightly. However, due to recent adjustments in carrier shipping plans and a shortage of sea freight containers, export volumes from many regions declined noticeably. The overall decline outweighed the increase, leading to a decrease in the national total export volume of prebaked anodes compared to last month.
Cost Side
Petroleum coke prices showed different trends in June depending on grade, generally stabilizing with a downward bias. The trading atmosphere among state-owned refineries weakened month-on-month, with prices falling to varying degrees based on specifications. Low-sulfur coke in Northeast China promoted sales through auctions, reducing refinery inventories to low levels and easing stock pressure. Prices stabilized in mid-to-late June, with contract execution as the main focus.
In June, independent refineries'offers adjusted more frequently, with sulfur content changes occurring often. Independent refinery prices first rose then fell. Low-sulfur coke prices dropped month-on-month, following the state-owned refineries, while prices for standard grade cargoes mostly rose compared to May.
For high-sulfur standard cargoes, downstream buying was active, providing firm support, and prices maintained an upward trend in early to mid-June before falling slightly in late June. Currently, the price of 3B petroleum coke in the Shandong market is 3,420 Yuan/tonne, down 90 Yuan/tonne from late May; 3C petroleum coke is currently priced at 2,850 Yuan/tonne, up 200 Yuan/tonne from late May. In the East China market, the current price of 3B petroleum coke is 3,420 Yuan/tonne, unchanged from late May.
In June, the average price of coal tar pitch rose slightly. Early in the month, driven by rising raw material high-temperature coal tar prices, coal tar pitch prices pushed higher. However, as coal tar entered a downward trend, coal tar pitch prices slipped for two consecutive weeks. Meanwhile, cooling demand-side enthusiasm for coal tar pitch also dragged prices down.
Near the end of June, raw material high-temperature coal tar prices bottomed out and rebounded, providing favorable cost support for deep-processing enterprises to push for higher coal tar pitch prices. This drove an active rally in coal tar pitch prices.
However, increased coal tar pitch supply suppressed the upside, leading to a tug-of-war between supply and demand over the extent of gains. Overall, the market's upward channel has opened. Currently, the modified pitch price in the Shandong market is 4,900 Yuan/tonne, down 100 Yuan/tonne from late May; the current price in the Shanxi market is 4,850 Yuan/tonne, down 150 Yuan/tonne from late May.
Outlook
In July, in terms of raw materials, the operating rate of delayed coking units at domestic refineries will continue to decline slightly. Petroleum coke specification structures will adjust somewhat due to crude oil changes. Overall resource supply is expected to decrease further. Demand from the carbon industry remains fair, so future petroleum coke market shipments are expected to be relatively stable, with prices fluctuating narrowly.
In early July, raw material high-temperature coal tar still has an expectation of another price increase, providing strong cost-side support. However, rising operating rates of deep-processing enterprises will cap coal tar pitch prices. Price increases are expected to be limited, with average prices edging up slightly.
In July, on supply and demand, more new anode projects are scheduled for ignition and commissioning, while previously idled maintenance units are still in the process of restarting, continuing to affect partial output. Overall future prebaked anode supply is expected to perform well. Recently, aluminum capacity has continued to rise slightly.
Although the overall increment is limited and the growth in anode demand will slow, current aluminum capacity utilization has reached a high level, providing stable support for prebaked anode demand.
In terms of price, influenced by rising raw material prices during the settlement cycle, cost support has re-emerged, and the prebaked anode market is turning upward again.
According to Mysteel, the July 2026 purchasing benchmark price of prebaked anodes for a large aluminum smelter in Shandong increased by 30 Yuan/tonne compared to June, with the spot price at 5,683 Yuan/tonne and the acceptance price at 5,707 Yuan/tonne.
After the price decline, the anode market quickly bottomed out and stopped falling. Market sentiment has reacted positively. Producers are actively executing existing orders. It is expected that cost pressures on producers will ease further.
Written by Regina WANG
wangjiaqie@mysteel.com
