Copper prices rebounded in futures and spot markets on July 10, with macro disruptions continuing to shape short-term price fluctuations. As Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, the Middle East conflict once again deteriorated, likely leading macroeconomic pressure to weigh on copper prices going forward. However, copper concentrate supply remains persistently tight, non-U.S. refined copper inventory stays low, and the long-term demand outlook is optimistic, providing fundamental support for copper prices.
Refined copper spot trading in China continued dropping on July 10, with spot premiums seeing limited changes across major markets. In contrast, copper scrap transactions notably grew, as rising copper prices widened scrap holders' profits, increasing spot supply, while downstream processors also actively procured raw materials.
Mysteel's clean copper concentrate spot treatment charge (TC) index stood at -$134/dmt as of July 10, falling further to historically low levels under persistent supply tightness and robust smelting demand. The collapse in TCs have begun spreading downstream, reshaping smelter profitability, accelerating reliance on by-product revenues, and forcing production adjustments that could eventually constrain subsequent refined copper supply in China.
Trading in China's copper semis markets weakened on July 10, due to rising prices and sluggish end-use demand amid the off-season. In the near term, copper semis orders may remain supported by firm rigid demand, with a notable recovery in copper consumption unlikely.
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H1 2026 Saw Intertwined Contradictions in China's Copper Market - What's Next for H2?
