Copper prices slightly dropped in futures and spot markets on July 16, as escalating Middle East conflicts weighed on market risk appetite and supported the U.S. dollar index, suppressing copper prices. Looking ahead, copper prices are likely to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with attention needed on the development of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the implementation of U.S. tariff policies on refined copper, and actual copper consumption.
Refined copper spot trading in China notably rebounded on July 16, despite surging spot premiums. After the contract rollover, traders actively make purchases while downstream enterprises maintained raw material procurement based on rigid needs, together pushing up transactions. Meanwhile, refined copper retail inventory in China continued sharply dropping as of July 16, due to limited smelter shipments during concentrated maintenance, constrained import arrivals, and relatively firm downstream procurement. Moving forward, inventory is expected to continue declining.
In contrast, copper scrap trading fell sharply on July 16, as upstream holders saw concentrated sales during earlier price increases and primarily focused on fulfilling existing orders. Downstream scrap processors mostly sought low-priced scrap based on rigid needs, and expedite delivery of in-transit orders.
Trading in China's copper semis markets varied but stayed generally weak on July 16. While copper rod and copper plate/strip orders slightly improved during price declines, copper tube and copper bar transactions stayed sluggish amid mediocre end-user demand.
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H1 2026 Saw Intertwined Contradictions in China's Copper Market - What's Next for H2?
