CBOT soybean futures continued to rally, driven primarily by escalating tensions in the Middle East, which pushed up crude oil prices and indirectly boosted soybeans as a biofuel feedstock. At the same time, the U.S. Midwest soybean-growing regions are once again facing hot weather, adding a weather premium to the soybean market. Crop experts lowered their 2026 soybean yield estimates by 0.5 bushels per acre and maintained a neutral-to-lower bias. Currently, the USDA report stands at 53.0 bushels per acre, but the market generally believes that actual weather conditions in AugustSeptember will be the key factor determining final yields. Additionally, the Pro Farmer crop tour data in mid-to-late August will serve as an important price-validation catalyst. In summary, geopolitical premiums and potential weather risks together constitute the upside drivers for U.S. soybean futures, with near-term resistance to watch at the 1250-cent/bu level.