On August 10, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for September delivery edged up by 0.77% by the end of Monday's daytime trading and increased by 0.64% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 24,190/t as of 1 a.m. Tuesday, August 11, 2026.
Federal Reserve's Hammack signaled that multiple rate hikes may be needed to bring inflation down, adding that the July jobs data would not shift the focus away from inflation. Meanwhile, Trump denied frequent calls with Warsh, stating he has spoken with him only once since Warsh took office, and also extended the Jones Act shipping waiver by 90 days, albeit with its scope narrowed to energy commodities and fertilizers.
On August 10, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 23990 /tonne, up Yuan 20 /tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 24160 /tonne, up Yuan 70 /tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23890 /tonne, up Yuan 20 /tonne from the previous day.
Due to macro influences, aluminum prices continued to rise sharply this week. Downstream procurement momentum eased somewhat compared with before, and traders remained cautious and waited on the sidelines. The summer off-season and high temperatures have led some downstream enterprises to halt production for maintenance, while the pace of traders' inventory drawdown continued to slow. Overall market turnover weakened versus last week.
Traders' inventory in South China continued to draw down. Coupled with the approaching delivery deadline for priced long-term contracts, spot quotations stayed relatively firm, and the basis strengthened rapidly. Buyers procured on a just-in-time, need-based basis during dips, resulting in overall moderate turnover.
Traders' inventory in the Central China market increased, holding steady at around 190,000 tonnes. As the basis continued to strengthen, the traders slowed their sales pace, supporting prices with a firmer tone. Available supply tightened relatively, with quotations ranging from a premium of Yuan 10-20/tonne. In later sessions, as the futures curve rallied, market quotes shifted to premiums of Yuan 10/tonne up to the daily average price.
Taken together, the speed of inventory destocking in the off-season clearly slowed, and together with persistent US-Iran tensions, market concerns over inflation risk increased, putting some upward pressure on aluminum prices. Medium to long-term upside room for aluminum prices remains intact.
