On September 3, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for October delivery rose by 1.29% by the end of Thursday's daytime trading and increased by 0.47% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 24,390/tonne as of 1 a.m. Friday, September 4, 2026.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller struck a clearly dovish tone overnight, saying that if inflation continues to cool he would lean toward keeping rates unchanged at the September FOMC meeting; market pricing for a September rate hike dropped sharply, the dollar index fell, and U.S. Treasury yields broadly retreated, lifting the valuation of dollar-denominated base metals and reviving risk appetite across the complex. At the same time, the Middle East situation remains deadlocked, uncertainty over Gulf-region primary aluminum supply and raw-material logistics persists, and with LME aluminum inventories at low levels, overseas physical markets have returned to a tight structure, further injecting a supply-risk premium into both overseas and Shanghai aluminum prices.
On September 3, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 24,350/tonne, up Yuan 270/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 24,560/tonne, up Yuan 240/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 24,210/tonne, down Yuan 260/tonne from the previous day.
Yesterday SHFE aluminum gained, with traders' aluminum ingot stocks falling further to 789,000 tonnes. The sector remains fundamentally supported. Overseas supply-growth expectations cap upside, but low overseas inventories and continued domestic destocking into the demand shoulder season keep SHFE aluminum biased firm, likely ranging around Yuan 24,000/tonne near term.
Yesterday morning, SHFE aluminum fluctuated lower. Traders' inventories in the Central Plains market edged down slightly, holding near 160,000 tonnes. The basis remained unchanged, with holders showing strong willingness to sell and cash out, keeping spot supply relatively ample in the market. As aluminum prices dipped slightly, downstream demand emerged and purchasing picked up. Traders entered the market, prioritizing discounted low-priced cargoes. Trading sentiment improved somewhat, but overall turnover was moderate.
In the South China market, although sellers were active in offloading cargoes, readily tradable spot material was relatively tight. Warehouse warrants, having been stored for a long time, showed poor liquidity in trade. The basis surged intraday to a premium of 260 yuan/ton, and overall spot transactions were moderate.
In summary, macro tailwinds and overseas supply uncertainty lent support, but uneven spot uptake and persistent overseas supply expectations kept SHFE aluminum range-bound, with futures firming into the session and physical markets split across regions.
