Copper prices continued increasing in futures and spot markets on September 4, as U.S. Fed Governor Waller signaled he would favor holding rates steady if inflation data continues to moderate, pushing September rate hike bets down and improving risk sentiment. Meanwhile, the copper market fundamentals stayed supportive on low non-U.S. inventory, together supporting prices.
China's refined copper spot trading increased on September 4, despite elevated spot premiums and prices, due to downstream enterprises' stockpiling before the weekend. Copper scrap trading also rose, with the widening refined-scrap copper price spread boosting upstream holders' willingness to sell.
Mysteel's imported copper concentrate spot treatment charge (TC) index stood at -$201.56/dmt as of September 4, continuing falling week on week, indicating extreme supply tightness. The collapse in copper concentrate TCs is no longer simply a reflection of a tight market, but is the price signal of a structural supply-demand imbalance that is increasingly reshaping the copper industry, with bargaining power shifting toward miners and the gap between well-integrated and standalone smelters widening.
Trading in China's copper semis markets stayed mediocre on September 4, due to increasing raw material prices and limited end-use demand. Refined copper rod and copper tube saw limited new orders, while copper plate/strip and copper bar markets stayed cautious under elevated prices. Though secondary copper rod maintained price advantages, scrap invoice quota issues and mediocre demand constrained transactions. Overall, while peak season expectations persist, high copper prices will likely continue to suppress copper consumption in the near term.
