Copper prices continued rising in China's futures and spot markets on September 10, but dropped notably at overseas markets, as market sources indicated that the U.S. is still deliberating whether to impose tariffs on refined copper.
LME copper prices broke through to a new high this Monday and continued rising on Tuesday and Wednesday. The primary driver behind this is expectations that the U.S. will impose tariffs on imported refined copper. The U.S. Department of Commerce submitted an updated assessment of the copper market to President Trump at the end of June 2026, to help determine whether to impose a 15% tariff on refined copper starting January 1, 2027, and raise the rate to 30% in 2028. Driven by this, large volumes of refined copper have been flowing into the U.S., causing inventories in non-U.S. regions to drop and significantly pushing copper prices higher. Market participants need to continue closely monitoring potential follow-up tariff developments.
China's refined copper spot trading slightly grew on September 10, due to downstream procurement on immediate demand. China's total refined copper spot inventory continued to decline, hitting a new year-to-date low, though performance varied across markets. Inventory in Guangdong and Jiangsu declined both week-on-week and during the week. However, inventory in Shanghai rose slightly during the week, primarily due to increased arrivals at some warehouses. Combined with copper prices repeatedly hitting new highs, downstream purchasing sentiment was relatively subdued, leading to a slight inventory rebound.
Trading in China's copper semis markets remained weak on September 10 under elevated copper prices and slow demand recovery. The actual demand performance during the upcoming peak consumption season needs close attention.
