On September 17, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for October delivery increased by 0.35% by the end of Thursday's daytime trading and rose by 0.72% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 24,385/tonne as of 1 a.m. Friday, September 18, 2026.
Trump says the Iran war has entered a critical juncture, with whether to resume large-scale strikes still up in the air. Yet in reality, the US has still approved visas for Iran's president and foreign minister, allowing the Iranian delegation to travel to New York for the UN General Assembly, while Saudi Arabia has reportedly proposed a two-week ceasefire to "Houthi-style forces." This shows the market is pricing a "high-risk, low-realization" stalemate: crude sold off again, WTI fell below US $100 and Brent dropped more than 4% at one point, energy inflation premium unwound, and the global stagflation trade cooled.
For aluminum, cost-side support has weakened, thus expectations of power prices, alumina and energy freight premiums are drifting lower. Coupled with risk assets swinging between war panic and diplomatic easing, bulls dare not chase, while bears lean on the cost-collapse narrative to cap prices. Still, uncertainty over Middle East shipping and sanctions remains, and potential supply disruptions in aluminum provide a floor. Near term, prices are likely to stay in a high-volatility range-bound pattern.
On September 17, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 24,180/tonne, up Yuan 20/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 24,400/tonne, up Yuan 30/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 24,110/tonne, up Yuan 20/tonne from the previous day.
Yesterday SHFE aluminum extended its consolidation. Aluminum ingot traders' inventories fell by 44,000 tonne from Monday to 705,000 tonne. With overseas inventories remaining low and the domestic drawdown continuing, the mildly bullish, range-bound trend in SHFE aluminum remains intact.
Yesterday morning session, SHFE aluminum oscillated lower. In the Central Plains market, traders' inventories declined and stayed around 130,000 tonnes. Basis was unchanged; holders controlled their selling pace, market availability tightened, and offers were near the average price. As aluminum prices extended gains, downstream enterprises bought as needed and restocked on dips, while traders stayed cautious and, when entering the market, prioritized low-priced material. Overall market turnover was mediocre.
In South China, aluminum ingot traders' stocks continued to draw, falling 4,000 tonne on a daily basis. With the long-position delivery window approaching, the South China basis rose to around Yuan 250/tonne premium, but expectations of further basis strength remain. Ahead of the dual-festival holiday, downstream end-users began batch stockpiling, so overall trading was fair.
Overall, aluminum is caught in a tug-of-war: macro headlines keep geopolitics alive but fail to turn into real supply shocks, while physical markets keep firming on restocking and ongoing inventory draws. Near term, expect SHFE aluminum to stay range-bound with an upward bias.
