China's corn prices seen weakening as new-season crop hits market

At the initial stage of the new-season corn marketing, corn prices have already shown a weak trend. Farmers in North China have an open attitude toward selling grain, the pressure from the new-crop corn marketing continues, and the arrival volume at deep-processing plants remains high.

From the perspective of regional distribution, the corn arrivals at the deep-processing enterprises in Shandong has remained at 800-1,000 vehicles for several consecutive days, and some enterprises have even resorted to price cuts, with purchase prices lowered by Yuan 10-20/tonne compared with earlier periods. At present, the situation of strong supply and weak demand still persists, and the market lacks obvious signals of stopping the decline.

Meanwhile, there are still 5-6 million tonnes of old corn surplus in North China, and the grain supply is relatively sufficient. According to surveys, the proportion of old corn inventory in the three major producing provinces of Hebei, Henan, and Shandong in North China still reaches 15%-20%. Traders have a strong willingness to sell, and some grain traders actively cut prices to recover funds.

On the other hand, the new-season corns in producing areas in Northeast China will also be concentrated on the market after the National Day holiday, and the supply pressure will gradually emerge. The planted area of new-season corn in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning has increased steadily, and the yield expectation is good.

Corn inventory at northern ports is still as high as 1.527 million tonnes, about 900,000 tonnes higher than the same period last year. Corn inventory at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port reached 650,000 tonnes and 550,000 tonnes respectively, and port shipment volume remained at 1.5-2 million tonnes per day, but downstream procurement demand is weak, and inventory destocking is slow.

Southern sales areas are facing substitution pressure from imported grains, and sorghum and barley inventories remain excessive. According to customs data, from January to August 2026, China's cumulative imports of sorghum reached 4.5 million tonnes, and barley imports reached 3.2 million tonnes. Imported grain inventories are sufficient, exerting pressure on domestic corn prices.

With multiple pressures superimposed, it is expected that China's corn prices around the National Day holiday will mainly fluctuate weakly.

Although under short-term pressure, the probability of corn prices continuing to fall deeply is not high. The current corn price has approached the corn break-even point, and farmers' reluctance to sell still exists. After prices fall to a certain extent, the pace of grain sales will naturally slow down.

From historical experience, when corn prices fall 10%-15% below the break-even point, farmers' grain-selling speed usually decreases by 30%-40%, and market supply pressure will ease somewhat. At the same time, downstream feed enterprises have low corn inventories. As prices fall, rigid demand for restocking will gradually be released, forming support below. According to Mysteel surveys, the average corn inventory of major feed enterprises nationwide is only 15-20 days, and downstream has a certain restocking demand.

Late September to October will be a key stage for price bottoming. Farmers' cash realization demand will contend with cost support and downstream demand. It is worth noting that the supporting role of this year's purchase and storage policy should not be ignored.

Generally, in late October and early November in the Northeast, Sinograin Co. will release the new-season corn purchase price. Referring to the 2025/26 Northeast Sinograin corn purchase price of Yuan 1,980-2,080/tonne, this forms clear support for market prices. In addition, some provinces may introduce temporary purchase and storage or subsidy policies to further stabilize farmers' grain-selling prices.

Entering the first quarter of 2027, as the ownership of new-season corn gradually transfers from farmers to traders and feed enterprises, market supply pressure will gradually ease. From historical patterns, the first quarter is usually the peak corn consumption season, feed enterprises have strong restocking demand, port shipment volume increases, and corn prices often show a seasonal upward trend.

From a longer cycle perspective, domestic corn planting costs are rigidly rising, and after breeding profits recover, there is room for a rebound in feed demand. From the perspective of planting costs, corn planting costs in the Northeast have risen significantly, and the current price near planting costs is already in a low-valuation area.

Looking ahead to the market, enterprises in the industrial chain need to focus on tracking three core variables.

First, the corn harvesting progress and actual marketing volume in the Northeast and North China are key factors determining short-term price trends. Close attention should be paid to autumn harvesting weather conditions in the Northeast. If continuous rainy weather occurs, it may delay harvesting and marketing, short-term supply pressure may ease, and prices are expected to stabilize. In North China, attention should be paid to the progress of farmers' grain sales. If the corn-selling progress is lower than the same period in previous years, market supply pressure will ease somewhat.

Second, the recovery of hog breeding profits directly determines the potentials of feed corn demand. Hog breeding profits are the core driver of feed demand. When the hog-to-feed price ratio is higher than 6:1, farmers' willingness to restock increases, and feed demand rebounds. At present, the hog-to-feed price ratio is about 5.5:1, near the break-even line. If subsequent hog prices rise and drive a recovery in breeding profits, feed corn demand will increase significantly.

Third, the destocking speed of northern port inventories serves as a key indicator for judging the tightness of domestic corn supply and demand. Northern port inventory is the "reservoir" connecting production areas and sales areas. Fast corn destocking indicates strong downstream demand and relatively tight supply and demand; slow corn destocking indicates weak demand and loose supply and demand. At present, northern port inventory is 1.527 million tonnes, relatively high compared with the same period last year. If inventory subsequently continues to decline below 1 million tonnes, it will release a strong signal of relatively tight supply and demand, pushing corn prices upward.

In 2026/27, the corn market faces multiple pressures in the short term, including new-crop corn marketing, old grain supply, and import grain substitution, and corn prices will mainly fluctuate weakly. However, in the medium and long term, factors such as corn planting cost support, purchase and storage policy support, and recovery in feed demand will drive prices to gradually recover.