On the eve of the National Day holiday, the order divergence among domestic aluminum extrusion enterprises further widened, highlighting an industry pattern of stable head enterprises versus pressured small and medium-sized ones. Relying on long-term major client resources, new energy, and key engineering projects, top-tier large factories maintained relatively full order books, with comprehensive operating rates roughly ranging between 68% and 72%.
In contrast, a large number of small and medium-sized extrusion plants were struggling to survive. Reduced distributor orders and insufficient bargaining power left their operating rates mostly between 25% and 45%. Affected by aluminum price fluctuations, unclear market expectations, and heavy capital pressure, the willingness for proactive inventory buildup across the industry remained low. Enterprises universally adhered to a produce-to-order and purchase-to-order strategy, maintaining low raw material inventories and refusing to bear the risks of price volatility and inventory devaluation.
During the National Day period, holiday schedules for aluminum extrusion enterprises showed clear divergence. Most architectural profile factories closed for 5-7 days, some large factories with urgent orders arranged only 1-3 days of rotational leave, and a very few key industrial material suppliers closed for just 1 day or even operated on a shift basis. Overall, production-side shutdowns were significant during the holiday.
While orders could still be accepted normally, most deliveries were postponed to after the holiday for unified shipment. Sporadic market transactions gradually resumed from October 4th, but the absence of continuous market price guidance during the holiday, insufficient logistics and personnel, and strong downstream wait-and-see sentiment kept market activity low. Trading volumes were limited, primarily consisting of essential replenishment orders, with no speculative restocking or concentrated purchasing behavior observed.
In 2026, demand exhibits structural bright spots but remains overall weak. Orders for lightweight profiles in new energy vehicles have marginally improved, with leading enterprises securing more designated orders and bulk contracts, becoming the main support for the industrial profile sector. However, due to high entry barriers and long certification cycles, orders are highly concentrated among qualified large factories, leaving small and medium-sized plants struggling to enter the field.
Although multiple support and stimulus policies for the real estate sector have been introduced, the recovery of terminal construction and home decoration consumption remains slow, and policy transmission still requires time. In the short term, this has not driven a significant increase in architectural profile orders, and engineering demand recovery remains sporadic without a widespread rebound.
Competition in the photovoltaic profile sector continues to intensify, with processing fees for frame and bracket profiles being continuously compressed, resulting in thin industry profits. Coupled with generally long payment terms and heavy capital occupation pressure, quality orders are likewise concentrating at the top. Due to insufficient profitability and rising collection risks, many small and medium-sized factories are gradually scaling back or even exiting the PV supporting track.
The overall backdrop of oversupply in the aluminum extrusion industry remains unchanged, with low-end capacity redundancy and structural involution persisting. Market confidence is weak and the future direction is unclear, leading downstream customers to maintain a cautious mindset. Apart from essential engineering needs and gap-filling production procurement, most choose to wait and see around the National Day holiday, slowing down their purchasing pace.
Written by Regina WANG
wangjiaqie@mysteel.com
